国投期货化工日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Styrene: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PTA: ★★☆, meaning a clear bullish trend and the market situation is developing [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend and a relatively balanced short - term market with poor trading opportunities [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend and a relatively balanced short - term market with poor trading opportunities [1] - PVC: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend and a relatively balanced short - term market with poor trading opportunities [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The olefin - polyolefin market shows a mixed situation, with downstream demand recovering in some aspects but supply pressure remaining in others [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market has different trends, with overseas pure benzene having a short - term rebound and styrene futures rising due to cost and supply - demand factors [3] - The polyester market is affected by multiple factors such as international relations and device adjustments, with different products facing different supply - demand and price trends [5] - The coal - chemical market is generally bearish, with methanol facing high inventory and weak demand, and urea having potential downward risks [6] - The chlor - alkali market has a weak trend, with PVC and caustic soda both facing cost and demand challenges [7] - The soda - glass market is in a bearish situation, with both products facing supply - demand imbalances and cost - related issues [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures contracts closed lower, but downstream demand increased due to the restart of maintenance devices. Propylene inventory is low, supporting spot prices [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply pressure persists, seasonal demand is declining, and inventory is accumulating. However, the short - term decline is limited, while the medium - to - long - term bearish pattern continues [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas pure benzene rebounded due to supply shortages in the US and overseas blending oil demand, but the rebound in South Korea lacks sustainability. Domestic pure benzene still faces high imports and weak downstream demand [3] - Styrene futures closed higher, driven by the increase in pure benzene prices and a tight supply - demand balance. Although port inventories are high, there is an expectation of continuous inventory reduction [3] Polyester - PX prices rebounded due to factors such as international relations and device shutdowns. PTA has poor profitability, with increased device maintenance and weakening demand. Ethylene glycol has increasing supply pressure and is expected to accumulate inventory [5] - Short fiber has no new investment pressure, but demand is expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand is weakening, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol futures remained in a low - level oscillation, with high overseas device operation rates and sufficient on - the - way supplies. Demand is expected to be weak, and de - stocking is difficult [6] - Urea spot prices increased slightly. Agricultural demand is weakening, but industrial demand has rebounded. Supply remains high, and there is a possibility of price decline after market sentiment stabilizes [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to decline due to weak cost support. Although exports to India improved, the overall demand increase was limited. Supply is high, and demand is weak [7] - Caustic soda is in a downward trend. Although there are still profits in chlor - alkali integration, cost support is insufficient. Supply is high, and demand is weak [7] Soda - Glass - Soda ash continued to decline due to a decrease in cost support. Inventory decreased slightly, but the supply - demand surplus pattern persists in the long term [8] - Glass continued to decline, with high intermediate inventory and weak demand. The price is expected to follow cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]