国投期货软商品日报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, same as 20 - rubber [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, same as 20 - rubber [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends. Some are in a state of range - bound, some are expected to be weak, and some show signs of super - decline and rebound. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, with some suggesting temporary waiting and some suggesting attention to arbitrage opportunities [2][3][6] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with the mainstream basis of cotton spot remaining stable. New cotton is concentrated on the market, and demand is average, putting pressure on prices. However, the spot price is generally stable, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound. As of November 13th, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.67 million tons. The pure cotton yarn market has weak transactions, and the spinning mills' new orders are few. The US Department of Agriculture's November report is bearish, with the US cotton production significantly increased. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush, and due to good weather, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly. In October, China's sugar imports increased, and the market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. It is expected that the sugar price will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot market has sporadic transactions of apples in the warehouse, with prices slightly rising. As of November 14th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.3577 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is a high divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the inventory - removal situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose today. The global natural rubber supply is in a high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China has entered a production - reduction period. The demand is slowly weakening, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the spot inventory is rising. It is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures continued to fall today. As of November 13th, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The overseas broad - leaf pulp quotation is strong, but the downstream procurement intention is general. After the basis converges, the price has corrected. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price remains stable. In November, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation continued to rise, but the domestic spot price is weak, and the trader's import willingness is low. The port delivery volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory is low. Low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]