2025年11月19日：能源日报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in the given content - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in the given content - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly defined in the given content Core Views - The supply - side contraction has not led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and the rebound space of oil prices is still limited despite the overnight rebound [2] - The logic of high - sulfur being weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently strong due to supply - side fluctuations, but there is still medium - term supply pressure. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply pattern is expected to be loose in the medium term [2] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, demand is seasonally weakening, and the medium - and long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] - The import cost of international liquefied petroleum gas is expected to rise in December, and the supply - demand relationship is tightening marginally, so LPG is expected to be volatile and bullish [3] Summaries by Relevant Categories Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC01 contract rising 0.48% during the day. WTI is sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations above the US shale oil marginal production cost of $50/barrel. As the US sanctions on Russian oil take effect on November 21, major Indian buyers have suspended purchasing Russian crude for December delivery, and Trump mentioned sanctions legislation against countries trading with Russia and Iran. However, the API inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels last week, limiting the oil price rebound space [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently strong due to supply - side issues. Overseas refinery operations are unstable, the Kuwait Azur refinery has no clear restart date, Kuwait's fuel oil shipments are low, and the conversion of low - sulfur export quotas to refined oil in China is 490,000 tons. The end - of - year export pressure in China has eased marginally, and the fourth - quarter shipping fuel peak season and improved Sino - US trade relations have boosted the fundamentals. But the planned maintenance of the Dangote refinery's RFOC unit in late December may increase low - sulfur shipments, and medium - term supply pressure exists. High - sulfur fuel oil: Russia's shipments to Asia increased by 0.9% to 1.31 million tons in November, but the actual exports after November 21 are uncertain. With the Middle East's stable production increase and the end of the power - generation peak season, local exports are expected to increase, and the feedstock demand may decline after the new quota issuance, leading to a loose medium - term supply pattern [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - $11/barrel, weakening the cost support. The weekly shipment volume has decreased month - on - month since November and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The commercial inventory destocking has slowed down, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has expanded since late October. The demand for the "14th Five - Year Plan" end - year project rush has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule, with a bearish impact on BU in the medium and long term [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The expected import cost of international liquefied petroleum gas will increase in December. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting up, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the combustion - end demand. The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The marginal tightening of supply - demand has boosted LPG to be seen as volatile and bullish [3]