Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Not rated [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is in a low-level range oscillation. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, the cost side of coal and coke continues to decline, and the upward momentum of the disk is insufficient, but there is still support below [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate with a marginal loosening of fundamentals due to strong global shipments, weak steel demand in the off-season, and a deteriorating profitability of steel mills [3]. - The coke price may oscillate weakly with a general coking profit, a slight decrease in daily production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [4]. - The coking coal price may oscillate weakly with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slight increase in production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [5]. - The silicon manganese price has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation due to an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slow increase in inventory, and a small increase in manganese ore inventory [6]. - The silicon iron price may have a loosening bottom support with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a continuous decline in inventory, and an overall resilient demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk oscillated downward. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased month-on-month, production decreased synchronously, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down [2]. - The molten iron production increased slightly, but the downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, the proportion of steel mill losses expanded, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the later stage was high, gradually alleviating the supply pressure [2]. - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. Steel exports declined from a high level [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments were strong, and the shipment volume in the peak season was expected to remain high. The domestic arrival volume declined to below the annual average level, and the port inventory declined at the beginning of the week, with certain short-term structural fluctuations [3]. - On the demand side, the steel demand in the off-season was weak, the profitability of steel mills deteriorated, the molten iron production rebounded last week but was still in the seasonal production reduction trend, and there was further room for production cuts in the future, although the production reduction speed might slow down [3]. - At the macro level, it was in a policy vacuum period, temporarily lacking expected drivers [3]. Coke - The price dropped significantly during the day. The coking profit was still average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities, while the purchasing willingness of traders was average [4]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [4]. Coking Coal - The price dropped significantly during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and the price dropped accordingly. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated [5]. - The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal-producing areas, and the relevant impacts needed attention [5]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [5]. Silicon Manganese - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices [6]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a relatively high level, and the silicon manganese inventory increased slowly [6]. - The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, the spot ore prices fluctuated quickly following the disk, and the manganese ore inventory increased slightly, with no prominent contradictions [6]. Silicon Iron - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices [7]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall resilient demand [7]. - The silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].
黑色金属日报-20251119
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-19 11:09