Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Previously, the increase in costs and the peak season of downstream demand drove the price of plastics to rebound. However, with the overall supply - demand pattern remaining unchanged, it is expected that plastics will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 19, the overhauled units such as full - density units of Ningxia Baofeng restarted, and the plastic operating rate rose to around 89%, currently at a neutral level. As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders and raw material inventory, but the orders for packaging film continued to decline slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - end crude oil price rebounded after a decline, but the supply surplus pattern limited its increase. New production capacities were put into operation, and downstream enterprises had insufficient purchasing willingness. Traders were cautious about the future market and actively sold goods at reduced prices. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented yet [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 6781 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6838 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6833 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.22%. The position volume decreased by 19,678 lots to 528,666 lots [2] - Spot: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7220 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6950 - 7990 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 19, the overhauled units such as full - density units of Ningxia Baofeng restarted, and the plastic operating rate rose to around 89%, currently at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders and raw material inventory, but the orders for packaging film continued to decline slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around 64 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 720 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 730 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]
震荡上行：塑料日报-20251119
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-19 11:08