震荡运行：沥青日报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is decreasing, demand is weakening, and inventories are at a low level. The price of crude oil has rebounded slightly, but the overall market is still weak [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week-on-week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 16.9%, and a decrease of 274,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 11.0% [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. The supply in North China decreased, and its shipments decreased significantly. The national shipments decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons week-on-week, at a moderately low level [1]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week-on-week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States increased, and the crude oil price rebounded slightly. This week, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing plan to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low. With the arrival of the cold wave, the temperature in the north continues to drop, road construction is gradually ending, and subsequent demand will further weaken. The increase in projects in the south is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.13% to 3,045 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 3,066 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 10,781 to 181,181 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong increased to 3,030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract increased to -15 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week-on-week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was -4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to -0.1% from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of November 14, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to September 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. Inventory - As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% compared with the week of November 7, but it was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5]