资金面仍偏紧，债市窄幅震荡

1. Report Summary - On November 18, the capital market remained tight, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, most convertible bond individual securities fell, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declined, and the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [2] 2. Bond Market News 2.1 Domestic News - The National Bureau of Statistics released the unemployment rate data by age group for October. The unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) was 17.3%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.8% for the 30 - 59 age group [4] - Multiple "two - major" construction projects started recently. The State Council executive meeting proposed to plan and promote "two - major" construction in the overall situation of the 15th Five - Year Plan [4] - 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the central bank issued an implementation plan to encourage eligible science and technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market and support the bond issuance of consumer - related enterprises [5] - The Fourth China - Germany High - level Financial and Economic Dialogue reached consensus on deepening offshore RMB market cooperation and welcoming German institutions to issue panda bonds in China [6] 2.2 International News - For the week ending October 18, the initial jobless claims in the US were 232,000, and the continuing claims rose to 1.957 million. The government shutdown affected the release of key economic data [8] 2.3 Commodities - On November 18, WTI December crude oil futures rose 1.39% to $60.74 per barrel, Brent January crude oil futures rose 1.07% to $64.89 per barrel, COMEX December gold futures fell 0.2% to $4066.5 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.29% to $4.370 per ounce [9] 3. Capital Situation 3.1 Open Market Operations - On November 18, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net investment of funds on the day was 3.7 billion yuan [11] 3.2 Capital Interest Rates - On November 18, the capital market remained tight. DR001 rose 1.66bp to 1.529%, and DR007 rose 0.03bp to 1.524% [12] 4. Bond Market Dynamics 4.1 Interest - rate Bonds - The yields of interest - rate bonds changed slightly. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 0.15bp to 1.8040%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 fell 0.05bp to 1.8675% [15] - Several bonds were tendered, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [16] 4.2 Credit Bonds - Two industrial bonds had trading price deviations of over 10%. "23 Vanke 01" rose over 11%, and "H0 Baolong 04" rose over 37% [16] - There were multiple credit - related events such as debt reduction, companies being included in the list of dishonest executors, warnings from the trading association, rating adjustments, and ineffective bondholder meetings [18] 4.3 Convertible Bonds - The three major A - share indices fell 0.81%, 0.92%, and 1.16% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices falling 0.55%, 0.31%, and 0.78% respectively [18][19] - There were multiple convertible - bond - related events such as issuance approvals, conversion price adjustments, and early redemption announcements [23] 4.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the US bond market, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year yield fell 2bp to 3.58%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1bp to 4.12%. The inflation - protected 10 - year Treasury bond's break - even inflation rate fell 1bp to 2.27% [22][25] - In the European bond market, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yields of German bonds remained unchanged, while those of France, Italy, and the UK rose [26] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds showed different trends for different credit entities [28]