成品油强势下芳烃类继续交易调油逻辑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is still in a state of waiting for a change in one of the three drivers (macro, supply - demand, and geopolitics) to form a short - term logic. Geopolitical drivers may become the short - term main line, especially the situation in the Caribbean [1][3]. - The strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may have a positive impact on aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Different energy and chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on technical analysis [5][8][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The sharp fluctuations last week were due to the strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. The supply - demand situation may gradually improve, but geopolitical risks in the Caribbean are worthy of attention. Wait for a high - shorting opportunity after the event [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. Maintain an oscillating view, and the strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - Logic: The recent strength is due to short - term supply - demand improvement from device maintenance and the blending oil logic. In the medium - term, there is a risk of over - supply and seasonal inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Caribbean [5][8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly level, and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - Logic: The short - term contradiction is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation rate [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15,200 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Focus on the cost - end butadiene drive. Butadiene has a high supply and may face inventory pressure in the medium - term [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [13]. PX - Logic: Pay attention to whether the blending oil logic can drive the price up after the hype of polyester industry chain production cuts fades. Also, focus on geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 6,745 [17]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending oil logic and Caribbean geopolitical risks [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 4,655 [20]. PP - Logic: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [24]. Methanol - Logic: High port inventory suppresses the price, but the domestic supply - demand structure is improving. Wait for a long - position opportunity after the Iranian gas restriction and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to Caribbean geopolitical risks [26][28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a take - profit of 2,040, or take the initiative to stop the profit. Look for long - position opportunities after the price breaks through 2,040 [28]. PVC - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue, and there is no hope for demand. It is difficult to have an upward drive [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: High supply pressure increases with new capacity. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [33]. Plastic - Logic: High supply and weak demand lead to inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [36]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downward drive remains [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1,245 [41]. Caustic Soda - Logic: High supply pressure and weak demand. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [43]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [43].