2026年度展望：货币政策：在“利率比价”中寻锚

Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with potential for 1-2 rate cuts corresponding to a 10-20bps reduction[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate within the range of 1.70%-2.0%, while the 30-year yield may range from 1.90%-2.30%[1] - The central bank may implement 1 trillion yuan in net purchases of government bonds, equating to a 50bps reduction in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in terms of liquidity supply[2] Interest Rate Corridor Adjustment - The interest rate corridor is expected to narrow, with DR001 becoming the benchmark rate, guiding fluctuations around the 7-day reverse repurchase rate[2] - The new interest rate corridor may see adjustments, with a target range of 70bps for the upper and lower limits based on temporary reverse repo rates[2] Interest Rate Pricing and Spread Management - The focus will shift towards managing the interest rate spread while maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship, particularly between loans and government bonds[3] - The average weighted interest rate for loans was 3.24% as of Q3 2025, with the after-tax yield on loans at 1.787%, closely matching the 10-year government bond yield of 1.76%[3] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected inflation due to "anti-involution" policies and the possibility of monetary policy easing if economic performance falls short of expectations[3] - The banking sector may face challenges with asset duration mismatches and unstable deposit scales, necessitating timely adjustments in monetary policy to enhance liquidity supply[3]