铅周报：国内社会库存逐步累库，关注宏观因素影响-20251119

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Gradual Accumulation of Domestic Social Inventory, Focus on the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recently, domestic secondary lead smelting enterprises have gradually resumed production, while downstream lead-acid battery consumption has gradually weakened, leading to a gradual accumulation of domestic social inventory and insufficient upward momentum for lead prices. Affected by overseas macroeconomic factors, the non-ferrous sector may be under overall pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of macroeconomic factors on lead prices [4] Summary by Section Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - Industrial Supply and Demand: This week, the processing fee for domestic lead concentrates reached 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for SMM imported lead concentrates reached -135 US dollars/dry ton. Some smelters have locked in long-term agreements for 2026, but the relevant processing fees have dropped to -160~-200 US dollars/dry ton. The average operating rate of SMM's three provincial primary lead smelters this week was 67.57%, unchanged from last week. The SMM's four provincial secondary lead weekly operating rate was 48.24%, a decrease of 2.41% from last week. The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five provincial lead-acid battery enterprises was 70.56%, a month-on-month increase of 1.34%. As of November 13, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations reached 34,900 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from November 6 and 2,200 tons from November 10 [4] - Trading Strategies: Hold profitable short positions and monitor domestic social inventory; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out-of-the-money call options [4] 1.2 Futures Price - Information on Shanghai lead price, LME lead price, monthly spread, and futures market trading volume and open interest is provided, with data sources from IFIND and SMM [6] 1.3 Price Spread - Information on SMM 1 lead ingot, Shanghai lead spot premium/discount, secondary lead ≥pb98.5, secondary refined lead, LME lead 0-3 month premium/discount, and lead concentrate scrap price difference is provided [9] 1.4 Inventory Data - Information on LME lead inventory, cancellation warrant ratio, domestic social inventory, domestic registered warrants, LME inventory by region, and port inventory is provided, with data sources from IFIND and SMM [12] 1.5 Lead Industry Chain Inventory - Information on smelter lead concentrate inventory, primary lead smelter raw material inventory, secondary lead smelter finished product inventory (monthly), primary lead delivery brand factory warehouse, primary lead smelter finished product inventory, and secondary lead smelter finished product inventory (weekly) is provided [15] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Information on global lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, lead concentrate import profit and loss, and silver concentrate imports is provided [20] 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Information on total domestic lead concentrate supply, domestic mine operating rate, and domestic lead ore production is provided [23] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - Information on lead-containing waste prices, waste battery prices, and secondary lead smelter raw material inventory is provided [28][29] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Information on global refined lead balance, global refined lead production, and global refined lead demand is provided [36][38] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Information on import profit and loss, import volume, export profit and loss, export volume, net export volume, and seasonal export profit and loss is provided [41] 3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profit - Information on lead concentrate processing fee, smelting profit, sulfuric acid revenue, silver revenue, and smelting profit is provided [42] 3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Information on primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, primary lead production, and electrolytic lead main delivery brand production is provided [46] 3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Cost and Profit - Information on secondary lead enterprise cost (scale enterprises), secondary lead enterprise comprehensive cost (scale enterprises), secondary lead enterprise comprehensive profit and loss (scale enterprises), secondary lead enterprise comprehensive cost (small and medium-sized enterprises), secondary lead enterprise production profit, and secondary lead enterprise production profit (tax-excluded) is provided [48][52] 3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Information on secondary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, secondary lead production, and secondary lead rough lead production is provided [58] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Information on total domestic lead ingot supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export is provided [61] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead-Acid Battery - Information on lead-acid battery enterprise operating rate, lead-acid battery dealer finished product inventory, lead-acid battery export volume, lead-acid battery enterprise finished product inventory, and lead-acid battery import volume is provided [68] 4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Information on lead alloy prices, lead alloy import and export, lead plate import and export, and other lead plate import and export is provided [71] 4.3 Automobile - Information on Chinese automobile production, Chinese automobile export, domestic automobile production structure, traditional fuel vehicle production, and new energy vehicle production is provided [73][74] 4.4 Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communication - Information on motorcycle production, communication construction volume, power engineering (grid engineering and power source engineering) is provided [77][78][79]