Report Overview - Research Variety: Iron ore - Report Cycle: Daily - Date of Report: November 17, 2025 - Research Analyst: Feng Jiayu [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore futures market had prices rising in an upward - trending oscillation. The price increase was driven by rising macro - policy expectations and short - term demand recovery. However, the fundamental situation of iron ore has not fundamentally improved, and the market is in a structural game. Short - term prices are supported by policy expectations and a phased increase in demand, while medium - to long - term prices face pressure from a continuous supply surplus, shrinking steel mill profits, and high port inventories. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 750 - 820 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include policy signals from important meetings, the sustainability of the increase in steel mill hot - metal production, and the process of port inventory reduction [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market Conditions - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract showed an upward - trending oscillation. The lowest point was 767.5, the highest was 791, and it closed at 788.5, with a 1.81% increase. The trading volume was 351,300 lots, an increase of 84,900 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 481,400 lots, an increase of 1,019 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a backwardation market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts generally rose, with the increase ranging from 3.5 to 14 points. The total open interest of the variety was 907,493 lots, an increase of 6,657 lots compared to the previous trading day. The i2605 contract had the largest increase in open interest, with an increase of 4,639 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 45.9 yuan/ton, a minimum of 39 yuan/ton, and 39 yuan/ton on the reporting day [8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 900 lots, a minimum of 800 lots, and 900 lots on the reporting day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Demand Side - The steel mill hot - metal production increased slightly to 236,880 tons per day on a month - on - month basis. However, steel mill profits continued to deteriorate, the number of maintenance plans increased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the hot - metal production may decline in a step - by - step manner in the future [9]. 3.3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - Hawkish remarks from Fed officials suppressed the risk appetite for commodities. In China, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment widened, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down, and terminal demand weakened seasonally [10].
铁矿石期货日报-20251119
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2025-11-19 13:31