Core Insights - The report indicates a challenging environment for perpetual bonds in the banking sector, with both supply and demand expected to remain weak in 2026 [2][3] - The net supply of perpetual bonds is projected to stabilize at a low level, with significant contributions from TLAC bonds [2][3] - Demand for bank perpetual bonds is facing challenges due to regulatory changes and market conditions, impacting their attractiveness [2][3] Supply - The net supply of perpetual bonds has decreased significantly, with 2025's issuance at 1.38 trillion yuan, down from previous years, and net financing dropping to 363 billion yuan [8][12] - The supply is expected to remain low in 2026, with net financing projected to be around 400-500 billion yuan, characterized by a decline in large banks' issuance and an increase from smaller banks [2][3] - TLAC bonds are anticipated to provide some relief to the supply side, with a projected net supply of around 300 billion yuan in 2026 [2][3] Demand - Bank perpetual bonds continue to be a crucial component of the credit bond market, but demand is weakening due to regulatory changes and market dynamics [2][3] - The implementation of new accounting standards for insurance companies may reduce their investment capacity in perpetual bonds, although the overall impact is expected to be manageable [2][3] - The demand from banks for self-managed investments is likely to stabilize, while mutual funds may face challenges due to new fee regulations, impacting their allocation to perpetual bonds [2][3] Valuation - The report highlights the potential for a shift in the relative valuation of perpetual bonds due to weak supply and demand dynamics [3][3] - Credit spreads for perpetual bonds may face upward pressure if participation from funds and insurance companies diminishes, with projected spreads for 3-year AAA-rated bonds in the range of 25-60 basis points [3][3] - The valuation of different bond types is expected to diverge, with higher-grade bonds potentially facing upward pressure on spreads [3][3] Strategy - The report suggests a tactical approach to trading opportunities in high-grade bank perpetual bonds, with a focus on price differences between new and existing bonds [3][3] - For mid-sized banks' perpetual bonds, it is recommended to actively monitor value propositions while being cautious of non-redemption risks [3][3] - TLAC bonds are noted for their dual value in both allocation and trading, with a particular emphasis on floating rate bonds [3][3]