银河期货：多晶硅：关注现货签单和平台公司落地情况，工业硅：区间震荡，逢高沽空

Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon, the short - term strategy is to wait and see, and consider short - selling on rallies if the spot price weakens. For industrial silicon, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - This week, the polysilicon market is in a tight - balance state, but there is pressure on prices due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand. The industrial silicon market may return to a supply - surplus pattern if the rumored organic silicon production cut is implemented; otherwise, it remains in a tight - balance state. The current valuation of industrial silicon is relatively high, and the market is weak [4][6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Polysilicon - In November, the silicon wafer production schedule decreased by 1GW to 59GW compared to October, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 118,000 tons. The polysilicon production in November is 115,000 - 120,000 tons, showing a tight - balance situation. There are pressures in the silicon wafer and battery markets, and the polysilicon spot price also faces downward pressure. The upcoming Chengdu PV Conference may lead to a large number of orders, and the spot transaction price may guide the futures price. The market rumor about the establishment of a platform company also affects the market. It is advisable to wait and see this week. If the polysilicon spot price weakens, short - selling on rallies can be considered [4]. - Strategy: Short - term wait - and - see, waiting for large - scale spot transactions and the establishment of the platform company; no arbitrage strategy; take profit on selling put options [5]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the weekly production of DMC increased by 1.67% to 48,700 tons, the weekly polysilicon production decreased by 2.54% to 28,400 tons, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.4 percentage points to 59.8%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1.5 percentage points to 60.6%. The weekly industrial silicon production was 90,400 tons, a decrease of 0.57% compared to last week, and the total number of open furnaces remained unchanged at 264. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.6 million tons to 54.6 million tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased by 0.06 million tons to 17.54 million tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.13 million tons to 23.53 million tons [6][27][28]. - If the rumored 30% production cut in the organic silicon industry is implemented, the demand for industrial silicon will decrease by 3 million tons, and the market will return to a supply - surplus pattern. Otherwise, it remains in a tight - balance state. The current valuation of industrial silicon is relatively high, and the market is weak. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the price range reference of (8500, 9500) [6]. - Strategy: Fluctuate within a range, short - selling on rallies; no option and arbitrage strategies [7][8]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking Market Conditions - This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 9020 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable [12]. Downstream Demand - The weekly production of DMC increased, the polysilicon production decreased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased. The weekly DMC production was 48,700 tons, a 1.67% increase; the weekly polysilicon production was 28,400 tons, a 2.54% decrease; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase; and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 60.6%, a 1.5 - percentage - point increase [15]. Production - This week, the industrial silicon production decreased. The weekly production was 90,400 tons, a 0.57% decrease. The total number of open furnaces was 264, remaining unchanged. The number of open furnaces in Sichuan decreased by 1, in Inner Mongolia increased by 1, in Gansu increased by 2, in Fujian decreased by 1, and in the Northeast decreased by 1. The operating rate of silicon plants in the Northwest has reached a high level, with limited room for further production increase. Silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan may have a small amount of furnace shutdown space, and it is expected that the industrial silicon production will continue to decrease next week [27]. Inventory - The factory inventory slightly increased, the social inventory decreased, and the downstream raw material inventory slightly decreased. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 54.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 17.54 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons; and the downstream raw material inventory was 23.53 million tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons [28]. Product Prices - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable this week. The prices of DMC and terminal products in the organic silicon industry increased. The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates slightly increased. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy slightly increased, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy strengthened. The electricity price in the Southwest region increased, and the price of petroleum coke also increased [33][38][44][48][51]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking Price - This week, the price of N - type re - feedstock in polysilicon strengthened. The prices of some types of silicon wafers and batteries weakened. The prices of some components increased slightly [56][59][62]. Component Data - Recently, component enterprises have gradually increased component quotes. Some component enterprises have reduced production this month, but terminal demand provides some support, and the reduction in component production is small. It is expected that the component production in November will be 46GW. The inventory of photovoltaic components in Europe has increased to 35.4GW, and the inventory of domestic photovoltaic manufacturers is 30.6GW, at a moderately low level [74]. Battery Data - The export demand for batteries is good. The inventory of specialized battery manufacturers is 5.81GW, at a moderately low level. In November, the component production schedule has decreased, and the battery production schedule has also been adjusted down to 54GW [75]. Silicon Wafer Data - This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises decreased, and the weekly production of silicon wafers decreased to 13.12GW. Currently, the silicon wafer sector produces according to demand, and the silicon wafer inventory is 18.42GW. The silicon wafer production schedule in November is 59GW, a decrease of 1GW compared to October [81]. Polysilicon Data - This week, the polysilicon production slightly decreased, and the factory inventory slightly increased to 267,000 tons. In November, Tongwei Co., Ltd. plans to gradually shut down production in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, with a total shutdown scale of 370,000 tons/year. The polysilicon production will decrease by 20,000 - 25,000 tons compared to October, and may further decrease by 10,000 tons in December compared to November. Newly - opened capacities of Asian Silicon Industry, Orient Hope, and Daquan Energy are ramping up this month, and the newly - opened capacity of Xinte Energy's Zhunbei Base will increase production by 3000 - 5000 tons. GCL Technology has a certain production - cut plan, with a reduction of about 4000 tons. The polysilicon production in November will decrease by about 20,000 tons compared to October [89].