三大行业基础结转量增加碳价大幅上涨

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the "Scheme" provides effective support for carbon prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [3]. - In the short - term, the increase in the basic carry - over volume of the three major industries leads to an increase in potential purchase demand, but it is necessary to note that it may not all be converted into market buying demand [3]. - In the long - term, the total quota gap of quota - deficient enterprises in the three major industries increases, and the supply - demand may be tight, which will drive up carbon prices [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Policy Adjustment - On November 17, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Scheme", which has two adjustments compared with the previous draft: the coefficient of carbon emission intensity and carbon emission intensity deviation is adjusted from 0.1 to 0.15, and the upper and lower limits of carbon emission intensity deviation are adjusted from ±30% to ±20%; the basic carry - over volume of key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries is adjusted from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons. For key emission units included in two or more industries, the basic carry - over volume is adjusted to the sum of the basic carry - over volumes of key emission units in each industry (≥110,000 tons) [1]. Market Performance - On November 19, 2025, the carbon emission quota rose sharply in the early trading and hit the daily limit, with a slight pull - back at the close. The closing price was 66.86 yuan/ton, with a gain of over 8%. The trading volume for the whole day was 1.1464 million tons, a 17.6% increase from the previous day's trading volume [2]. Short - term Impact - The adjustment of the "Scheme" allows enterprises in the three major industries to buy more quotas before the end of the year to carry over to next year, increasing short - term potential purchase demand. After the adjustment, the potential purchase demand of newly added enterprises increased from 1.334 million tons to 13.34 million tons [3]. Long - term Impact - The increase in the coefficient of carbon emission intensity and carbon emission intensity deviation makes the quota surplus or deficit of enterprises larger. Considering that the quota carry - over policy only lasts until the end of 2025, in 2026, quota - surplus enterprises may be more inclined to "hoard" quotas, while quota - deficient enterprises will convert all quota gaps into market demand due to compliance requirements, so the supply - demand may be tight and drive up carbon prices [4]. Operation Suggestions - Quota - surplus enterprises should confirm whether the remaining quotas meet the maximum carry - over volume requirements, and sell the excess part on rallies; key emission units in the three newly included major industries in the national carbon market can pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips in the carbon market [4]. Noun Explanation - Carbon emission intensity coefficient: An indicator characterizing the advanced level of an enterprise's carbon emission intensity control; when an enterprise is better than the industry benchmark level, the value is >0; otherwise, the value is <0 [5]. - Carbon emission intensity deviation: In 2025, the carbon emission intensity coefficients of steel enterprises, cement clinker production lines, and aluminum electrolysis processes are based on the gap between the carbon emissions per ton of products in their main processes and the industry balance value [5].