甲醇日评20251119：短期供需压力难解，关注预期变动-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2601 contract will experience low - level fluctuations. The core contradiction of methanol currently is that demand is difficult to increase in the short term, while supply pressure both in reality and expectation is continuously strengthened, pushing down spot and futures prices. This contradiction cannot be resolved in the 01 contract. With high port inventories, lack of restocking motivation from downstream, and high import expectations from November to December, supply pressure cannot be effectively alleviated this year. For the 01 contract, futures unilateral operation is not recommended, and it is suggested to sell out - of - the - money put options based on volatility. The report is relatively optimistic about the far - month contracts as the supply pressure may be over - exaggerated, and if the supply - side expectation reverses, it may provide good rebound momentum for methanol [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 increased from 2029.00 yuan/ton to 2030.00 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase; MA05 rose from 2145.00 yuan/ton to 2153.00 yuan/ton, a 0.37% increase; MA09 increased from 2200.00 yuan/ton to 2204.00 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: Prices in most regions decreased. For example, the price in Hubei dropped from 2140.00 yuan/ton to 2100.00 yuan/ton, a 1.87% decrease; in Guangdong, it fell from 2025.00 yuan/ton to 2010.00 yuan/ton, a 0.74% decrease [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 14.00 yuan/ton to - 27.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.50 yuan/ton [1] - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 610.00 yuan/ton and 690.00 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of Yulin Q6000 increased from 680.00 yuan/ton to 682.50 yuan/ton, a 0.37% increase [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.2. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 100.30 yuan/ton to 80.30 yuan/ton, a 19.94% decrease; natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 1310.00 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol Downstream Profit: Profits of some downstream products changed. For example, the profit of acetic acid increased from 461.72 yuan/ton to 481.72 yuan/ton, a 4.33% increase; the profit of MTBE decreased from 301.88 yuan/ton to 259.40 yuan/ton, a 14.07% decrease [1] 3.3. Important Information - Domestic Information: For far - month arriving Middle - East methanol cargoes, the reference negotiation price is - 4 - 1.8%, with some factories reluctant to sell at low prices and buyers' bid at - 4 - 3.5%. Both sides are in a price tug - of - war [1] - Foreign Information: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - East country plans to shut down for maintenance in early December, and two other plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons plan to shut down at the end of this month or early December. Attention should be paid to later weather and raw material supply [1]