东吴证券晨会纪要-20251120

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates that the monetary policy in 2026 will continue to be supportive, with potential for 1-2 rate cuts and 1-2 reserve requirement ratio reductions [1][9][10] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.70%-2.0%, while the 30-year yield may range from 1.90%-2.30% [1][9] Fixed Income - The report outlines key valuation indicators for urban investment public REITs, including operational indicators like current revenue and distributable amount, valuation indicators such as expected REITs dividend rate and P/FFO multiples, liquidity indicators like daily turnover rate, and price indicators like daily price fluctuation [2][12] - Recommended REITs include Zhejiang Merchants Hu-Hang-Ning REIT and Zhongjin Anhui Traffic Control REIT in transportation infrastructure, Zhongjin Hubei Science and Technology REIT and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT in park infrastructure, and Guotai Junan City Investment Wide Court Rental Housing REIT in affordable rental housing [2][12] Industry - The 2025 Double Eleven sales totaled approximately 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2%, with comprehensive e-commerce platforms achieving 16,191 billion yuan, up 12.3% [3][14] - Instant retail showed remarkable growth, with sales reaching 670 billion yuan during Double Eleven, marking a 138% increase year-on-year [3][14] - The report suggests that the extended sales period significantly contributed to the overall growth, and highlights the importance of focusing on fast-growing sectors like pet products [3][14] Coal Industry - The coal price is expected to fluctuate in a weak equilibrium state in 2026, with a reasonable price expectation around 770 yuan/ton [4][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy security and suggests focusing on companies like Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy, which are expected to benefit from increased production and price elasticity [4][15] - High dividend logic is highlighted, with expectations that the dividend yield for China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal will decrease from around 4.5% in 2025 to approximately 3.5% by mid-2026 [4][15] Company Analysis - Xiaomi Group reported a Q3 revenue of 1131.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with a net profit of 113.1 billion yuan, up 80.9% [6][18] - The automotive segment achieved profitability for the first time, with a revenue of 290.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 199.2% increase year-on-year [6][18] - Xpeng Motors reported a Q3 revenue of 203.8 billion yuan, a 101.8% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 3.8 billion yuan, which is an improvement from the previous quarter [8][22] - Canadian Solar (CSIQ) expects Q4 sales between 13 billion to 15 billion USD, with a significant increase in storage shipments projected for 2026 [7][21]