综合晨报：美联储会议纪要显示内部分歧，美俄据悉拟定和谈框架-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's latest interest rate meeting minutes show that most officials tend not to cut rates, meaning a December rate cut is highly unlikely, and the market risk appetite remains volatile while the US dollar rebounds [1][12][19]. - Against the backdrop of the Ministry of Finance's early allocation of part of the 2026 budget for urban affordable housing projects, the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher with reduced trading volume, but the market style is chaotic and risk - averse trading persists. It is recommended to reduce long positions [2][22]. - The bond market failed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and had adjustment pressure. With the stock market strengthening slightly, Treasury bond futures declined. It is advisable to view the market from a volatile perspective [3][25]. - The EPA's re - emphasis on increasing RVO has boosted the rebound of edible oils, but the short - term supply pressure remains unrelieved. For industrial silicon, it is advisable to take profit on previous long positions and look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [4]. - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and oil prices declined with a reduction in risk premium [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's Q3 revenue accelerated by 62% year - on - year, and its Q4 revenue guidance also exceeded expectations. However, the Fed's internal officials have significant differences on a December rate cut, and the market's rate - cut expectation remains low. It is recommended to wait for the release of non - farm payroll data to see the market's new direction [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's meeting minutes show serious internal differences. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, but in the short term, there is a lack of direct positive factors for a new wave of upward movement. It is expected that gold prices will fluctuate widely around $4000, with increased long - short competition [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine. The Fed's meeting minutes show that most officials tend not to cut rates, so a December rate cut is unlikely. The US dollar index is expected to rebound [16][17][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance has advanced the allocation of part of the 2026 budget for urban affordable housing projects. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher with reduced trading volume, and technology stocks underperformed. It is recommended to reduce long positions instead of chasing the market [21][22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market failed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and had adjustment pressure. With the stock market strengthening slightly, Treasury bond futures declined. It is recommended to view the market from a volatile perspective [24][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - USDA reported that private exporters sold 330,000 tons of soybeans to China, and a 30,000 - ton shipment of Argentine soybean meal cleared customs in China. It is expected that futures prices will likely remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and weather conditions in South American production areas [27][28][29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The import cost of 24 - degree palm oil in South China has risen significantly. The EPA's re - emphasis on RVO has boosted the rebound of edible oils, but the short - term supply pressure remains. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance level of 9000 yuan/ton [30][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The workload of construction machinery increased in October, and the retail and wholesale of passenger cars from November 1 - 16 showed different trends. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to view them from a volatile perspective [32][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - The price of jujubes in Xinjiang has slightly declined. The futures market is volatile. It is recommended to operate with caution and pay attention to upstream procurement [35][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch has slightly decreased, and inventory has been reduced. It is expected that the price difference between 01 futures and rice flour will fluctuate, and it is advisable to conduct band trading [37][38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot corn market shows a pattern of strength in the south and weakness in the north. In the short term, the near - month contracts may not experience a significant decline. It is recommended to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies for 03 and 05 contracts when the situation becomes clear [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The 2026 medium - and long - term coal contracts have been signed, with the supply guarantee ratio and long - term contract price basically the same as in 2025. It is expected that coal prices will continue to fluctuate around 800 yuan [42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production and sales of air conditioners in December are expected to decline. The fundamentals of iron ore remain stable with a volatile trend. Although the supply pressure is high and port inventories are increasing, the risk of a sharp decline is reduced [43]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Tangrenshen terminated a fixed - increase project. In the short term, it is advisable to short - sell LH2601 and LH2603 on price rallies, and in the long term, pay attention to the opportunity to build long positions for LH2607 and distant - month contracts at low prices [44][45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - From January to October 2025, solar power generation increased. The polysilicon spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to return to a volatile market, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [46][48]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Organic silicon manufacturers plan to jointly reduce production and adjust prices. Although the price of industrial silicon has risen, the reduction in organic silicon production is negative for industrial silicon. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [49][52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a downward trend, and the trading volume of domestic lead contracts has decreased. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and cross - border trading [54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market is volatile, and domestic social inventories have decreased. It is recommended to manage positions well for long positions, continue to hold positive - spread arbitrage positions, and manage positions for cross - border arbitrage [55][56]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel - related transaction has occurred. The nickel market is fundamentally weak and technically bearish. In the short term, the price may continue to decline or rebound depending on production cuts. In the medium term, attention should be paid to Indonesia's supply - contraction actions [57][58][59]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma has adjusted its lithium mine production. The lithium carbonate market has strong short - term support, but the demand is expected to weaken from the end of the year to Q1 2026. It is not recommended to chase long positions, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies can be considered [61][62][63]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and oil prices declined. It is expected to maintain a short - term volatile trend [64][65]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased, and the supply has tightened. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol port and production enterprise inventories have decreased, but the port inventory decline is due to low arrivals. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on price rebounds, with a profit - taking target around 2000 yuan/ton [68][69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - South Korea's pure benzene exports from November 1 - 10 showed certain trends. The styrene market is affected by external factors, and it is recommended to view it from a volatile perspective in the short term [70][71]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has been slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether supply reduction will occur due to profit compression [72][73][74]. 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Germany will impose a 23% tax on Chinese cross - border small packages. The container freight market is currently weak, but with the approaching long - term contract season, the price may be supported. It is recommended to view the market from a volatile range perspective and look for short - long opportunities for the 02 contract on price dips [75][76].