商品期货早班车-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity futures market shows complex trends with different metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended based on these situations [2][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: Market strengthened on Wednesday, but London gold failed to hold above $4100. Fed's internal divergence on December rate - cut, employment report changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are key factors. Suggest buying at support levels [2]. - Silver: Supply tightness is gradually easing. Recommend gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - Copper: Price stabilized yesterday. With improved risk appetite and low rate - cut expectations, and considering the supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Aluminum: Aluminum price may maintain oscillatory adjustment after a decline, with improved spot trading but continued reduction of long positions in the main contract [2]. - Alumina: Supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [2]. - Zinc: Price declined yesterday. Due to supply shortages and demand - side factors, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Industrial Silicon: Price rebounded significantly. With planned production cuts and cost support, long positions can gradually take profits, and short positions should be entered with caution [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: Current demand is strong, but long - term demand may decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing highs, or consider selling put options [3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: Price rose. Near - month contracts are strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs due to factors like slow progress of the storage platform [3]. - Tin: Price trended strongly. With improved risk appetite and supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - Rebar: Supply - demand is weak, and there is significant structural differentiation. Hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605, and the reference range for RB01 is 3030 - 3080 [5]. - Iron Ore: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in iron ore 2605, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [5]. - Coking Coal: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in coking coal 2605, and the reference range for JM01 is 1110 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: US soybeans enter an oscillatory phase, and the domestic market is temporarily weak. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - Corn: As the supply in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline oscillatory. Hold short positions [7]. - Oils and Fats: Enter an oscillatory and slightly strong phase. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [7]. - Sugar: International sugar price rebounds, and the domestic market will follow the international trend to decline. Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - Cotton: Temporarily wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13300 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - Eggs: The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory due to decreased supply pressure and weakening demand [7]. - Pigs: The supply is still abundant, and the futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [8]. - Apples: Wait and see due to low inventory and high - quality apple price increases [8]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: Short - term oscillatory, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [8]. - PVC: Supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short or conduct spread trading [8]. - PTA: Take profits on long positions in PX, and short the processing margin of PTA in the long - term [8][9]. - Glass: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to conduct spread trading [9]. - PP: Short - term oscillatory and weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [9]. - MEG: Supply - demand accumulates inventory, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 01 contract [9]. - Crude Oil: Fundamentally bearish, but with high geopolitical uncertainty, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [9][10]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillatory, with the upside limited by the import window [10]. - Soda Ash: Supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Urea: The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to export news and supply - demand situation [10].