五矿期货能源化工日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with coal prices strong and enterprise profits falling, supply pressure persists. Demand is weak, so prices may decline further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to news. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the market atmosphere, and inventories are decreasing. Urea prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, the current view is bullish. Short - term bullish trading with quick in - and - out is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [9]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are weakening. It's recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [10]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [14]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven decline may shift to the impact of South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [17]. - For polypropylene, in a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory pressure, the price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [19]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November, but there is support from aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. Mid - term valuation increase opportunities are worth attention [22]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November. Although polyester load may remain high, PTA processing fees are under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase of PXN in the medium term [24]. - For ethylene glycol, inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. With a weak pattern, the valuation may be further compressed, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Quotes: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.48% increase, to 464.50 yuan/barrel. Fujeirah port's gasoline inventory decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. - Strategy: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see in the short term [2]. Methanol - Market Quotes: Taicang's price decreased by 5, Lunan remained stable, Inner Mongolia increased by 5, the 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 17 yuan to 2013 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 14, reported at - 137 [2]. - Strategy: High port inventories, strong coal prices, and weak demand. It's recommended to wait and see as prices may decline [3]. Urea - Market Quotes: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, Henan's by 20, Hubei's by 10. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 1 yuan to 1663 yuan, and the basis was - 53. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 72 [5]. - Strategy: The market is sensitive to news. With high supply and weak demand, new export policies have improved the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out [6]. Rubber - Market Quotes: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. Shanghai Exchange's November natural rubber warehouse receipts are about to be delivered. The long - short views are divided. Tire factory operating rates are neutral, and inventories are mixed [8]. - Strategy: Bullish view, short - term bullish trading with quick in - and - out, and partial position - building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [9]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC01 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 4492 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4450 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 42 (- 2) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 306 (+ 13) yuan/ton. Costs decreased, production and demand decreased, and inventories decreased [9]. - Strategy: Weak fundamentals, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Quotes: The price of East China pure benzene remained unchanged, the spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price increased. Supply increased, demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased [13]. - Strategy: The BZN spread has room to recover, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [14]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The futures price increased, the spot price decreased, the basis weakened. Upstream production decreased, inventories were mixed, and downstream demand was weak [16]. - Strategy: The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to cost and supply - demand factors [17]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The futures price increased, the spot price decreased, the basis weakened. Upstream production increased, inventories were mixed, and downstream demand increased slightly [18]. - Strategy: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory pressure, the price may be supported when the cost - side situation changes in Q1 next year [19]. PX - Market Quotes: The PX01 contract increased by 102 yuan to 6870 yuan, and the PX CFR increased by 5 dollars to 832 dollars. Loads decreased in China and Asia, and some plants had maintenance or production cuts. Imports increased, and inventories increased [21]. - Strategy: Expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November, but there is support from the supply - demand structure. Mid - term valuation increase opportunities are worth attention [22]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA01 contract increased by 42 yuan to 4712 yuan, and the spot price in East China increased by 30 yuan/ton to 4640 yuan. Loads decreased, some plants had maintenance or production increases, downstream loads decreased, and inventories increased [23]. - Strategy: Expected to accumulate inventory in November, processing fees are under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase of PXN in the medium term [24]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 3903 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 33 yuan to 3919 yuan. Supply loads were mixed, downstream loads decreased, imports were expected, and port inventories increased [26]. - Strategy: Inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4, and the valuation may be further compressed. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [27].