隆众资讯晨会纪要-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic and Policy: China suspends imports of Japanese aquatic products; the Netherlands suspends an administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor; NVIDIA's Q3 2026 financial report exceeds expectations; central Huijin - affiliated brokerages start integration; the organic silicon industry may implement production cuts; the Fed's October policy meeting shows internal differences on interest rates [5][6][7] - Financial Markets: A - shares show a shrinking - volume oscillation; the strategy for stock index futures is to remain on the sidelines with an oscillation mindset; the view on bond futures is bullish; steel and ore are expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term; coal and coke may continue to decline in the short - term; various commodities in different sectors have their own market trends and investment strategies [9][10][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic News - China notifies Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports; the Netherlands suspends the administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor; NVIDIA's Q3 2026 revenue and EPS exceed expectations, and its Q4 revenue guidance is also higher than expected; central Huijin - affiliated brokerages start integration; the organic silicon industry discusses production cuts; the Fed's October policy meeting shows differences on interest rates; the US will not release October employment data and will include it in the November report [5][6][7] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Adopt an oscillation mindset and remain on the sidelines. A - shares shrink in volume and oscillate. The decline in October macro data may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and real estate downturn [9] 3.2.2 Bond Futures - Strategy: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest rate cuts cannot be ruled out. The view on bond futures remains bullish [10] 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Market view: Short - term oscillation, medium - to - long - term bearish. The decline in demand, high inventory, and weak profit margins of steel mills contribute to the weak market. The spot market has general trading volume [12][13] 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - View: Short - term oscillation and decline. The supply of coking coal may shrink in the medium - term, but there is an increase in the short - term. The potential negative feedback from steel mills restricts the price [14][17] 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Market outlook: The double - silicon market oscillates. There is no significant change in the fundamentals, and the cost of manganese silicon may weaken slightly [18] 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - View: Currently, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines. The soda ash and glass industry is in a downward trend, with the supply of soda ash decreasing and the demand for glass remaining stable [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Strategy: Hold short positions at high prices. The domestic zinc inventory has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the price is in an oscillating and downward trend with potential for a rebound [21] 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Strategy: Look for opportunities to buy on dips. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the price is expected to be strong, but there may be a correction if production increases and demand weakens [22] 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon - Strategy: Temporarily remain on the sidelines and partially take profits on long positions. The supply and demand are in a loose balance, and the price oscillates within a range [23][24] 3.4.4 Polysilicon - Strategy: The price oscillates. The market is still waiting for policy changes, and the supply and demand contradiction is weak [25] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Market view: The price oscillates at a low level. The supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, and the high cost resists the decline [27] 3.5.2 Sugar - Strategy: Short - term bearish or remain on the sidelines. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply increases, but the cost limits the decline [29][30] 3.5.3 Eggs - Strategy: Gradually take profits on short positions and remain on the sidelines. The spot price is weak, the inventory of laying hens is high, and the consumption has not improved significantly [32] 3.5.4 Apples - Market view: The price oscillates. The apple storage is almost complete, the inventory is low, and the consumption trend will affect the future price [33][34] 3.5.5 Corn - Strategy: Pay attention to the pressure of spot supply. The current price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and there may be a correction in the future [35] 3.5.6 Red Dates - Strategy: Temporarily remain on the sidelines. The prices in production and sales areas are stable at a low level [36] 3.5.7 Pigs - Strategy: Adopt a bearish strategy for near - term contracts. The supply pressure is high, the demand is average, and the price may oscillate weakly [37] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market view: The price oscillates. The market is weighing supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical conflicts, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been fully reflected [39] 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Market view: The price follows the trend of crude oil. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [41] 3.6.3 Plastics - Strategy: The price oscillates weakly. The supply pressure is high, but the production losses of upstream enterprises may provide some support [42] 3.6.4 Rubber - Market view: The price oscillates. The fundamentals are stable, and the price may be affected by spot pressure and macro - economic factors at the end of the month [44] 3.6.5 Methanol - Strategy: Adopt a bearish strategy for near - term contracts and a bullish strategy for far - term contracts after a rebound. The supply pressure is high, and the inventory is high [45] 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - Market view: The price oscillates. The spot fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the bullish factors include coal price increases and low futures prices [47] 3.6.7 Asphalt - Market view: The price volatility may increase. The demand is ending, and attention should be paid to production cuts and Venezuelan oil shipments [48][49] 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - Strategy: Consider going long on PTA and short on EG. The cost is dragging down, but the supply is expected to be optimized [50] 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Strategy: Do not chase the rise and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term fundamentals are favorable, but the price has risen significantly [51] 3.6.10 Pulp - Market view: The price oscillates widely. The fundamentals are stable, and the cost provides support, but the demand is weak [52] 3.6.11 Logs - Market view: The price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance [53] 3.6.12 Urea - Market view: The spot price may strengthen, and the futures market is also expected to be bullish [53] 3.6.13 Synthetic Rubber - Strategy: The price oscillates in the short - term. Do not be overly bullish and consider selling call options after a rebound [54][55]