国新国证期货早报-20251120

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 19, 2025 - Stock Index Futures: A-share market had mixed performance, with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% at 3946.74, Shenzhen Component Index slightly down, and ChiNext Index up 0.25% at 3076.85. The trading volume of the two markets was 1725.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 200.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4588.29, up 20.10 [1][2] - Coke and Coking Coal Futures: Coke weighted index closed at 1679.7, down 21.7; coking coal weighted index closed at 1166.4 yuan, down 32.1. Coke has implemented four rounds of price increases, and coking profit has marginally recovered. Coking coal's seasonal demand is expected to weaken, and the coal price center has moved down [2][3][4] - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: Affected by the expected global sugar surplus of 260,000 tons in 2025/26, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined on November 19. China's sugar imports in October were 750,000 tons, up 39% year-on-year, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 3.9 million tons, up 14% [4] - Rubber Futures: Due to the flood risk in southern Thailand, the Shanghai rubber futures rose on November 19. As of November 16, the total inventory in Qingdao ports increased by 0.31 million tons to 452,600 tons, with the bonded area inventory down 1.76% [4] - Palm Oil Futures: On November 19, palm oil futures jumped due to the US biodiesel policy, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8852, up 1.65%. Market rumors suggest an increase in the RVO quantity in the final EPA plan [5] - Shanghai Copper Futures: The main Shanghai copper contract closed at 86080 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was dampened, the tight supply at the mine end and the recovery of downstream demand supported the price [5] - Cotton Futures: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13500 yuan/ton at night on November 19. The cotton inventory decreased by 900 lots, and the machine - picked cotton purchase price in Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [5] - Iron Ore Futures: The iron ore 2601 contract closed up 0.76% at 791.5 yuan. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, but the steel mill profit decline limits the increase in iron ore price [5] - Asphalt Futures: The asphalt 2601 contract closed down 0.13% at 3045 yuan. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a volatile state [5] - Log Futures: The log 2601 contract opened at 784, closed at 775.5, with an increase of 1121 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable, and the import volume in October decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6] - Steel Futures: The rb2601 and hc2601 contracts closed at 3070 yuan/ton and 3277 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the steel price may be adjusted narrowly due to weak demand in the off - season [6] - Alumina Futures: The ao2601 contract closed at 2740 yuan/ton. The supply is under pressure, and the market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation, with the price in a weak and volatile pattern [7] - Shanghai Aluminum Futures: The al2601 contract closed at 21570 yuan/ton. The demand is moderate, the supply is sufficient, and the social inventory is decreasing slightly. Attention should be paid to the interest - rate cut expectation and geopolitical situation [7] 2. Core Views - The A - share market showed mixed performance on November 19, 2025, with a decrease in trading volume [1] - The prices of coke and coking coal futures were affected by factors such as supply - demand changes and policies, with coke prices rising and coking coal prices under pressure [2][3][4] - The sugar market is expected to have a surplus in 2025/26, which may suppress prices. Zhengzhou sugar futures were affected by international and domestic factors and declined [4] - The rubber market was supported by the weather risk in Thailand, but the inventory in Qingdao ports showed different trends [4] - The palm oil market was boosted by the US biodiesel policy, and the price rose [5] - The copper market was affected by the Fed's policy and supply - demand factors, with the price showing a certain degree of support [5] - The prices of other commodities such as cotton, iron ore, asphalt, logs, steel, alumina, and aluminum were also affected by their respective supply - demand fundamentals and market expectations [5][6][7]