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生猪：降温预期落地，压力逐步释放
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-20 01:47

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cooling expectation for the pig market has materialized, and the pressure is gradually being released [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 11,830 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 11,400 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; in Guangdong, it is 12,160 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [2]. - Futures Prices: The price of pig futures contract 2601 is 11,560 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25; contract 2603 is 11,350 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5; contract 2605 is 11,995 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 45 [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For contract 2601, the trading volume is 55,080 lots, a decrease of 32,311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 138,334 lots, a decrease of 4,083 from the previous day; for contract 2603, the trading volume is 14,483 lots, a decrease of 6,257 from the previous day, and the open interest is 114,413 lots, a decrease of 469 from the previous day; for contract 2605, the trading volume is 12,335 lots, a decrease of 3,827 from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,576 lots, an increase of 1,060 from the previous day [2]. - Price Spreads: The basis of contract 2601 is 270 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 75; the basis of contract 2603 is 480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 105; the basis of contract 2605 is - 165 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 145; the spread between contract 2601 and 2603 is 210 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 30; the spread between contract 2603 and 2605 is - 645 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 40 [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].