国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers short - term outlooks for various commodities, suggesting that most commodities are in a state of shock, with some showing specific trends such as pressure or potential rebounds [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. Base Metals - Copper: There is a lack of clear drivers, and prices are in a shock state, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - Zinc: LME inventories are accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12]. - Lead: Reduced inventories limit price declines, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - Tin: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina continues to face pressure, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][27]. Energy Metals - Lithium Carbonate: There are limited fundamental changes, and market sentiment changes should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][32]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: The strategy is to short at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when long - short arbitrage funds leave the market, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][36]. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][39]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][42]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][49]. Forestry Products - Log: It is in a repeated shock state, with a trend strength not mentioned [2][51]. Chemicals - Para - Xylene: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits [2][28]. - PTA: It is in a single - sided shock market, and chasing high prices is not recommended [2][28]. - MEG: New device production leads to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure remains [2][28]. - Rubber: It is in a shock state [2][30]. - Synthetic Rubber: It has support during the shock [2][32]. - Asphalt: It is in a narrow - range shock [2][34]. - PP: Do not short in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2][36]. - Caustic Soda: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37]. - Pulp: It is in a shock state [2][38]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][40]. - Methanol: It is in a weak shock state, and the downward space is narrowing [2][41]. - Urea: It has support in the short - term shock [2][43]. - Styrene: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock [2][45]. - Soda Ash: There are few changes in the spot market [2][46]. - LPG: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [2][47]. - Propylene: Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is in a bottom - range shock [2][47]. - PVC: There is still pressure in the trend [2][50]. - Fuel Oil: Night - session prices continued to correct, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][51]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The weakness continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remains at a high level [2][51]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][59]. - Soybean Oil: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, and it is mainly in a range - bound shock [2][59]. - Soybean Meal: It is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - Soybean No. 1: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - Corn: It is in a shock state [2][63]. - Sugar: It is in a weak state [2][65]. - Cotton: Futures prices maintain a shock trend [2][66]. - Eggs: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse arbitrage pattern [2][68]. - Pigs: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][69]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the actions of oil mills [2][70].