国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report provides daily outlooks for various energy - chemical futures on November 20, 2025, including trends such as supply - demand analysis, price movements, and short - to - medium - term trading suggestions for each commodity [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Aromatics and Downstream Products - Para - xylene (PX): Supply is tightening, squeezing downstream profit margins. Overseas aromatics blending demand is rising, and Korean GS disproportionation unit may cut production. It is suggested to conduct 5 - 9 spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene for hedging. The terminal polyester demand is weakening marginally [2][10]. - PTA: It is in a single - sided oscillatory market, and chasing high prices is not recommended. Cost provides support, and the spread view is revised to positive arbitrage. The inventory build - up pressure is relieved due to extended maintenance of some plants and new polyester device startups [2][10]. - MEG: The medium - term trend is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies and maintain reverse spread. New plants are starting up, inventory is accumulating, and the supply pressure persists. The demand from polyester is expected to decline in December [2][11]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It is oscillating. Weather factors support the supply side, but the inventory is in a seasonal build - up cycle, limiting the upside of rubber prices [2][15]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is oscillating with support. The overall synthetic rubber spot trading has improved, and the natural rubber market is firm. However, the medium - term pressure remains large [2][19]. Asphalt - Asphalt: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The December domestic asphalt refinery production is expected to decline, the capacity utilization rate has decreased this week, and the shipment volume has increased in some regions [2][32]. Polypropylene (PP) - PP: In the short term, short - selling should be avoided. In the medium term, there is still downward pressure. The supply is high, but the short - term trading has improved due to low prices. The long - term factors include high supply, cost pressure, and weak downstream demand [2][34]. Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The trend still has pressure. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand from non - aluminum downstream and exports is weak. The cost support is limited [2][39]. Pulp - Pulp: It is oscillating. The market supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, with high inventory pressure and weak downstream demand [2][45]. Glass - Glass: The original sheet price is stable. The market trading atmosphere is generally weak, and the prices in some regions have declined [2][47]. Methanol - Methanol: It is oscillating weakly, and the downside space is narrowing. The supply is high, the MTO industry profit is compressed, and the macro - driving force is weakening [2][55]. Urea - Urea: It is oscillating with support in the short term. The fourth - batch export quota may relieve the factory's inventory pressure, and the mid - stream is in the peak replenishment period [2][60]. Styrene - Styrene: Short - term attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene. It is in a short - term oscillation. The pure benzene market is affected by both weak chemical fundamentals and strong overseas blending expectations [2][62]. Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The enterprise device operation is stable, and the downstream demand is flat. The short - term market is expected to oscillate steadily [2][64]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The supply - demand expectation is tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term. - Propylene: The spot trend is strong, and the futures is oscillating at the bottom. The PDH and related downstream industry operating rates have changed [2][66]. PVC - PVC: The trend still has pressure. The supply is sufficient, the demand expectation is weak, and the "alkali - compensating - chlorine" profit pattern is hard to sustain [2][73]. Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The night - session continued to correct and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The weakness persists, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market remains at a high level [2][76]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is in an oscillatory market. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have shown different trends, and the trading volume and open interest of related futures contracts have changed [2][78].