国泰君安期货所长早读-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed meeting minutes showed significant differences among participants regarding the December interest - rate decision. Many thought it was not suitable to cut rates in December, while some were concerned about the disorderly decline of the stock market. The "new Fed newswire" believed that a slight majority of policymakers were uneasy about a December rate cut [8][23]. - For precious metals, the long - term upward trend of gold and silver is certain, but the short - term prices are volatile. Gold should be bought on dips, and silver may reach a new high this year if the macro - sentiment is favorable [9][10]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have been following the decline of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil, and the long - term strength reversal of low - sulfur fuel oil should be watched out for [11]. - PX supply is tight due to increased overseas aromatics blending demand and the planned reduction of South Korea's GS disproportionation unit, and its price has risen [12]. - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is strong, but the risk of a price correction in the first - quarter demand off - season should be noted [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Meeting and Macro - news - The Fed meeting minutes revealed that participants had different views on the December policy decision. Some thought a rate cut in December might be appropriate, many preferred to keep rates unchanged this year. Most believed that rate cuts in the context of high inflation and a cooling job market could exacerbate inflation risks. Almost all supported ending the balance - sheet reduction in December, and many supported increasing the proportion of short - term debt holdings [8]. - U.S. economic data is missing after the government shutdown, which has reduced the December rate - cut expectations. The 10 - month non - farm payroll report will not be released, and the 11 - month report is rescheduled to December 16 [10]. 3.2 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold: The price has been affected by the change in rate - cut expectations. The recent fundamentals show that the price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 937.00 with a daily increase of 2.01%, and the night - session price was 935.42 with a 0.53% increase. The overall trend is that the long - term is upward, but short - term fluctuations are large [9][10][20]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 12141 with a daily increase of 3.81%, and the night - session price was 12035.00 with a 0.63% increase. The spot supply is tight, and there is potential for a new high [9][10][20]. 3.3 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: The spot trading was active in November, but the premium remained low. With the end of refinery maintenance in the Middle East, the supply is expected to increase, and it will be under pressure in the Asia - Pacific region [11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It has been strengthening recently due to ongoing refinery maintenance in Brazil, Japan, etc., and the high cracking spread of European gasoline and diesel. However, as overseas refineries return to operation in mid - November, there is a risk of price decline [11]. 3.4 PX - The supply of PX is tight due to increased overseas aromatics blending demand and the planned reduction of South Korea's GS disproportionation unit. The price has risen, and operations such as 5 - 9 spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene hedging are recommended [12]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term trend is strong, but the industry is still in the de - stocking cycle. The spot trading is light, and downstream acceptance of high - price lithium salts is low. In the medium - term, the risk of price correction in the first - quarter off - season should be noted [13][48]. 3.6 Other Commodities - Copper: The price lacks a clear driver and is in a state of shock. The fundamentals show that the price of Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 86110 with a 0.53% daily increase [24]. - Zinc: LME inventories have increased. The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 22420 with a 0.49% daily increase [27]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory limits the price decline. The price of Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17250 with a 0.12% daily increase [30]. - Tin: The price has fallen from a high level. The price of Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 288890 with a - 0.51% daily increase [34]. - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound shock. The price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 21570 [39]. - Nickel: The price has broken through the support level and is under pressure. The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 115650 [42]. - Stainless steel: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but the downside space is limited. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12335 [43]. - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to short on rallies. The price of Si2601 closed at 9390 [52]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when the positive - arbitrage funds leave the market. The price of PS2601 closed at 54625 [52]. - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The price of the iron - ore futures contract closed at 791.5 [55]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of RB2601 closed at 3070, and the price of HC2601 closed at 3277 [58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5462, and the price of silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5642 [62]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of JM2601 closed at 1139.5, and the price of J2601 closed at 1639 [65]. - Logs: The price fluctuates repeatedly [67].