国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillation and repetition [2] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, along with their respective fundamental data and macro - industry news [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price was 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The 12601 contract had a position of 480,907 hands, an increase of 9,616 hands. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spreads had minor changes [4] - Macro - Industry News: In October, the year - on - year actual growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the year - to - date growth from January to October was 6.1% [5] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,070 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,277 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [8] - Macro - Industry News: According to the November 13th weekly data from Steel Union, there were decreases in production, total inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil. In October 2025, there were changes in national steel production, imports, and exports [9][10] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,462 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. For silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,642 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [12] - Macro - Industry News: On November 19th, there were price ranges for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions [12] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,139.5 yuan/ton, down 1.7%. For coke J2601, the closing price was 1,639 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [15] - Macro - Industry News: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [16] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - Fundamental Data: There were data on the trading volume, positions, and closing prices of different contracts, as well as spot - futures spreads and price changes in the log spot market [18] - Macro - Industry News: Customs总署 decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [20] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]