尿素早评20251120：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage - enterprises to enter the market. It is recommended to stop profit on sold options and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the medium and long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Futures and Spot Prices - UR01 futures prices in Shandong, Shanxi, and UR05, UR09 futures prices had different changes on November 19 compared to November 18. For example, UR01 in Shandong increased by 1 yuan/ton (0.06%), and UR05 decreased by 1 yuan/ton (-0.06%) [1] - Domestic spot prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu also rose. For instance, the price in Henan increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.24%) [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 21 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. Downstream prices of compound fertilizers in Shandong and Henan remained stable, while the melamine price in Shandong increased by 34 yuan/ton (0.67%) [1] 3.4 Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1675 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1660 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1665 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 249089 lots [1] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Sell options to stop profit, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the medium and long term [1]