铅锌日评20251120：沪铅上方承压，沪锌或有回调-20251120

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Lead Market: The lead price is under pressure due to potential weakening of raw - material support and improved supply tightness. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. - Zinc Market: The zinc market fundamentals are weak in the short - term, and the zinc price may be under pressure. In the medium - term, the zinc price has some support at the lower end. It is advisable to hold previous short positions and use range - bound trading strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Data - Price: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price is 17,250 yuan/ton, up 0.12%; LME3 - month lead futures closing price is 2,027 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.51, up 0.12% [1]. - Spread: Shanghai lead basis is - 150 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; LME0 - 3 lead is at a discount of 28.21 dollars/ton; LME3 - 15 lead is at a discount of 85.10 dollars/ton, up 1.20 dollars [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Futures active contract trading volume is 46,208 lots, down 16.09%; open interest is 63,895 lots, down 7.57%; trading volume to open interest ratio is 0.72, down 9.22% [1]. - Inventory: LME lead inventory is 264,475 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 31,206 tons, down 4.54% [1]. Zinc Market Data - Price: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,350 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; LME3 - month zinc futures closing price is 2,990.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 7.50, up 0.49% [1]. - Spread: Shanghai zinc basis is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; LME0 - 3 zinc is at a premium of 129.76 dollars/ton; LME3 - 15 zinc is at a premium of 40.72 dollars/ton, down 3.38 dollars [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Futures active contract trading volume is 91,247 lots, down 2.38%; open interest is 67,487 lots, down 18.02%; trading volume to open interest ratio is 1.35, up 19.09% [1]. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory is 45,075 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 75,314 tons, down 1.92% [1]. Industry News - Lead: Endeavor silver - zinc mine restarted ore hoisting and grinding operations on November 15th and shifted to continuous shift production. Silver - lead concentrate transportation is ongoing for a scheduled shipment in early December [1]. - Zinc: Multiple polymetallic ore mining and beneficiation projects in Dong Ujimqin Banner, Inner Mongolia, have obtained construction land approvals and are ready to start, while the relevant procedures of the Diyanchinaamu molybdenum polymetallic ore project are progressing orderly [1]. Fundamentals Analysis - Lead: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the start - up of primary lead fluctuates slightly. The start - up of secondary lead is affected by different factors in different regions. Demand from lead - acid battery enterprises has increased [1]. - Zinc: Refineries are actively purchasing domestic zinc ores, and the domestic ore supply is tight with processing fees expected to decline further. Refinery production is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month, while demand is weak [1].