Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-20 01:54Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of NVIDIA is expected to drive a rebound in technology stocks, and the market may rebound due to the influence of US stocks and brokerage mergers [18][23]. - The risk appetite in the bond market has recovered, and the bond market remains weakly stable, but caution is needed regarding potential short - term trading opportunities [24][25]. - For various commodities, different trends are presented. For example, protein meal prices are gradually falling due to supply pressure, while sugar prices are expected to be range - bound both internationally and domestically [28][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: NVIDIA's strong performance may drive a rebound in technology stocks. The market showed support on Wednesday, with significant sector differentiation. The strategy is to go long on dips in the short - term, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads on dips [18][21][23]. - Treasury Futures: The risk appetite has recovered, and the bond market is weakly stable. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, take profit on previous (TL - 3T) positions, and try to go long on the T - contract current - quarter to next - quarter inter - delivery spread [24][25][27]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Supply pressure is evident, and the price is gradually falling. In the US, soybean export sales are expected to be within a certain range, and Brazil's soybean production is expected to be high. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be supported, while rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [28][29][30]. - Sugar: International sugar prices are oscillating lower, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. Globally, there will be a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, international sugar prices may oscillate slightly stronger, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. The strategy is to go long on dips for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [31][34][35]. - Oilseeds and Oils: The oscillating market continues. External factors have led to short - term price fluctuations, and different oils have different supply - demand situations. The strategy is to go long on dips or conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations for single - side trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [36][37][39]. - Corn/Corn Starch: Spot prices are starting to correct, and the futures price is falling. The US corn futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, while domestic corn prices in the Northeast are falling, and those in the North China are relatively strong. The strategy is to go long on dips for the outer - market December corn, short on rallies for the January corn, wait for corrections for the May and July corn, and conduct spread - narrowing operations for the January corn - starch spread [40][41][43]. - Hogs: The slaughter pressure persists, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall supply pressure remains, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle strategies for options [44][45][46]. - Peanuts: The spot price is weak, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom in the short - term. The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and quality. The strategy is to short on rallies for the January peanuts, go long on dips for the May peanuts with a stop - loss at 7800, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse spreads, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [46][47][48]. - Eggs: Demand is average, and egg prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure is gradually easing, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [49][50][52]. - Apples: Demand is average, and fruit prices are mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, and the fundamentals are relatively strong, but it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to recent large fluctuations [53][54][55]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and cotton prices are mainly oscillating. External factors and supply - demand situations at home and abroad affect the price. The strategy is to expect range - bound oscillations for US cotton and short - term oscillations for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: Steel prices are oscillating within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. The industry is affected by policies, costs, and demand. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating downward trend for single - side trading, go long on the coil - to - rebar spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [62][63][64]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices are correcting from high levels, and the futures market is weakly operating. After short - term replenishment, the market sentiment has changed. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating short - term trend without chasing short positions, consider going long on dips near previous lows in the medium - term, continue to hold the coking coal 1/5 reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [64][65][66]. - Iron Ore: A bearish approach is recommended. The supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. The strategy is to expect a high - level bearish trend for single - side trading, enter a 1/5 inter - delivery high - level reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [67][68][69]. - Ferroalloys: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a cost - supported range. Different ferroalloys have different supply - demand and cost situations. The strategy is to expect bottom - oscillating trends for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [69][70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: NVIDIA boosts market sentiment, but the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve suppresses gold and silver prices. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. The strategy is to hold long positions cautiously near the support level of the 18th, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [72][74][76]. - Copper: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to go long on dips, pay attention to the 85000 yuan/ton support level, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [76][77][80]. - Alumina: Substantial production cuts have not been realized, and the price is weakly operating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and long - term contracts. The strategy is to expect a short - term weak trend until the warehouse receipts are circulated, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [80][81][83]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Overseas economic data are unexpectedly absent, and Shanghai aluminum moves with the sector. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market, and go long on Shanghai aluminum and short on LME aluminum to narrow the spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [83][84]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Aluminum alloy moves with the aluminum price. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, wait for the market sentiment to digest, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - Zinc: It shows a wide - range oscillation. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to continue to hold profitable long positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][88][90]. - Lead: It oscillates within a range. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to close profitable short positions and stay on the sidelines, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [90][91][94]. - Nickel: The cost is loosening, and the nickel price is oscillating downward. The oversupply of deliverable products and the macro - environment affect the price. The strategy is to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [94][95][96]. - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The industry is affected by factors such as investment plans and carbon taxes. The strategy is to short on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96][97][98]. - Industrial Silicon: Short - term partial profits can be realized, and new strategies can involve going long on dips near the support level. The price is affected by production capacity and market demand. [98]