Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market has a tightened global balance, with the bottom of import costs possibly emerging, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to oscillate [3][5] - The palm oil market is suppressed by over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia, but recent export improvements provide support. It may reverse the inventory build - up in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the strategy is to view it as oscillatory, turning bullish if production drops [7][8][10] - The sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season. With weak external markets and high import profits, the suggestion is to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [12][13] - The cotton market has weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year. After some negative factors were digested by previous price drops, short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate [16][17] - The egg market's short - term focus is on demand support. Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures will likely oscillate. In the medium - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [20][21] - The pig market's long - term trend is bearish due to supply surplus, but short - term counter - rallies are possible. The recommended strategies are reverse spreads first, followed by short - selling on rallies [23][24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Market Conditions: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined after reaching the cost line, and Brazilian soybean premiums fell by 3 - 10 cents/bu. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped slightly by 30 yuan/ton, with good sales and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3492 million tons, up from last week's 2.0776 million tons. Last week, soybeans and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year [2] - Supply and Demand: In Brazil, soybean planting in areas with less rainfall in the early stage is expected to go smoothly as rainfall recovers, with a planting progress of 71% as of last Thursday. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons. US soybean production was cut by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were also reduced, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton cut in inventory [3] - Strategy: The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward space needs more production cuts. With high domestic inventories, soybean meal is expected to oscillate [5] Oils - Market Conditions: On Wednesday, domestic oil prices opened high and closed low. ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the same period last month, and the first 15 days decreased by 10% - 15.5%. SPPOMA data showed different trends in production. China's palm oil imports in October were 220,000 tons, down 11.7% year - on - year, and 1.96 million tons from January to October, down 15.3% year - on - year. Domestic spot basis was stable [7] - Strategy: Over - production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market, but recent export improvements provide support. Observe the sustainability. Palm oil may reverse the inventory build - up in Q4 and Q1 next year. The strategy is to view it as oscillatory, turning bullish if production drops [8][10] Sugar - Market Conditions: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fall. The closing price of the January contract was 5,381 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing factories also decreased. The basis between Guangxi spot and Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 219 yuan/ton [11] - Supply and Demand: The International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 season, compared to a 2.92 - million - ton deficit in 2024/25. China's sugar imports in October were 750,000 tons, up 213,200 tons year - on - year, and 3.9054 million tons from January to October, up 13.8%. India's sugar production increased significantly this year [12] - Strategy: Stricter import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. With expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [13] Cotton - Market Conditions: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures slightly rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was 1,294 yuan/ton [15] - Supply and Demand: China's cotton imports in October were 90,000 tons, down 20,000 tons year - on - year, and 780,000 tons from January to October, down 67.36% year - on - year. The USDA report increased the global cotton production forecast in the 2025/26 season. As of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.28 million tons, up 370,000 tons year - on - year [16] - Strategy: With weak downstream demand and high domestic production, and after previous price drops digesting some negative factors, short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate [17] Eggs - Market Conditions: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 2.82 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, downstream demand was average, with a small inventory pressure. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with a few declines [20] - Strategy: The short - term focus is on demand support. Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures will likely oscillate. In the medium - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [21] Pigs - Market Conditions: Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally rose slightly, with some areas stable. The average price in Henan rose 0.14 yuan to 11.76 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan rose 0.05 yuan to 11.32 yuan/kg. Farmers' reluctance to sell decreased, and supply may increase, but demand boost was limited. Today's pig prices are expected to stabilize [23] - Strategy: The long - term trend is bearish due to supply surplus, but short - term counter - rallies are possible. The recommended strategies are reverse spreads first, followed by short - selling on rallies [24]
五矿期货农产品早报-20251120
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-20 02:05