油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报-20251120

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The report anticipates a 4% expansion in the US soybean planting area in 2026, while the latest forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is 178.76 million tons, a reduction of over 2 million tons from the September prediction due to irregular rainfall in some regions [2]. - Night trading of protein meal showed a weak trend. The USDA供需 report lowered the US soybean yield forecast for 2025/26, resulting in a decrease in production and ending stocks. However, as the market's expectation for the report's adjustment strength was high, the actual data was less favorable. Recently, the US soybean crushing demand has been strong, but the US soybean futures price has corrected due to significant increases. The domestic soybean meal market remains loose with high inventory, and it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will adjust following the US soybean in the short term [2]. - Night trading of oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend. The MPOB report indicated an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports, leading to continued inventory accumulation to 2.46 million tons. After the report was released, the market showed a situation of "bad news is out." Regarding soybean oil, market rumors suggest that the EPA is preparing to submit the final RVO plan to the White House, boosting the demand expectation for soybean oil in biodiesel. It is expected that the futures prices of related oils and fats will strengthen in the short term. However, due to the upcoming arrival of Australian rapeseeds and frequent state reserve sales, the supply of rapeseed raw materials has increased, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8,356, 8,852, 9,813, 3,022, 2,419, and 8,844 respectively, with price changes of 36, 144, -61, -19, -12, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.43%, 1.65%, -3.15%, -0.62%, -0.49%, and 0.29% [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09 are -290, -236, -451, -920, 1,353, and 433 respectively, compared with previous values of -288, -264, -460, -952, 1,484, and 532. The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 are -26, 80, 491, 1.20, 2.73, and 5,038 respectively, compared with previous values of -53, 88, 467, 1.19, 2.75, and 5,026 [1]. International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,176 ringgit/ton, 1,135 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 321 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of 241, -15, -1, and -6, and percentage changes of 6.12%, -1.33%, -1.30%, and -1.72% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8,640 and 8,670 respectively, with a percentage change of 0.70%; the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8,810 and 8,740 respectively, with a percentage change of 1.38% and 1.39%; the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9,780 and 9,860 respectively, with a percentage change of -0.31% and -0.30%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 2,990, with a percentage change of -0.99% and -1.32%; the spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2,400 and 2,490 respectively, with a percentage change of -1.64% and -1.58%; the spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7,450 and 7,400 respectively, with a percentage change of -1.32% and 0.00% [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil is 284 and 314; the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil is -42 and -112; the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil is -33 and 47; the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal is -32; the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal is -19 and 71; the spot basis of Linyi and Anyang peanuts is -344 and -394. The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is -20; the spot spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1,500; the spot spread between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 510 [1]. Import Profit and Crush Margin - The current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -411, compared with a previous value of -469. The current import profit of near - month US Gulf soybeans is -337, compared with a previous value of -339. The current import profit of near - month Brazilian soybeans is -32, compared with a previous value of -267. The current import profit of near - month US West soybeans is -253, compared with a previous value of -260. The current import profit of near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil is 491, compared with a previous value of 554 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 24,627, 730, 4,161, 40,890, 2,000, and 0 respectively, compared with previous values of 24,731, 730, 5,253, 41,073, 2,745, and 0 [1].