甲醇：震荡偏弱，下方空间收窄

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market is expected to be weak with a narrowing downside space. The current fundamental drivers are downward, and it is in a weak operation recently due to high supply, increased pressure on the MTO industry, and compressed production profits under inventory pressure. The cost - side pricing logic weight of methanol has increased slightly, and the cost center is expected to gradually stabilize [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of methanol's 01 - contract was 2,013 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,016 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume was 1,387,439 lots, an increase of 275,547 lots; the open interest was 1,450,621 lots, a decrease of 7,882 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,165 tons, a decrease of 3,887 tons; the turnover was 2,797,398 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 548,342 ten - thousand yuan. The basis was - 28, down 11; the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 137, down 14 [2]. - Spot Market: The price in Inner Mongolia remained at 1,920 yuan/ton, the price in northern Shaanxi increased by 15 yuan to 1,905 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong remained at 2,080 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2016.39, an increase of 3.28. The Taicang spot price was 1,997 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,977.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 11 cities saw price drops ranging from 5 - 20 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market showed different trends, with the futures hitting a new low. Port inventories decreased under the influence of reverse - flow of imported goods, but the buying was still mainly for rigid demand. The basis of the main port strengthened slightly. In the inland main production areas, the spot was tight, and the upstream auction prices increased slightly. Some areas in the southwest and Shandong continued to decline [4]. - As of November 19, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 147.93 million tons, a decrease of 6.43 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%. The port inventory decreased, with good提货 in the East China social warehouse due to lack of domestic supply and reverse - flow of imported goods, and stable downstream rigid demand. The inventory in the South China ports also continued to decrease [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak - bearish view [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Drivers: The fundamental drivers of methanol are downward. In terms of supply, the daily production of methanol has increased compared to the early 11th. The import logistics contradiction may be alleviated, and the import supply is still abundant. On the demand side, the MTO industry is under pressure, and the profit is significantly compressed, suppressing the upward space of methanol. There are no major macro events in the short term, and the market is expected to be weak in the near future [6]. - Valuation: As the processing profit of coal - to - methanol is gradually compressed, the weight of the cost - side pricing logic of methanol has increased slightly. The coal price is expected to rise more slowly, and the cost center of coal - to - methanol is expected to gradually stabilize. It is necessary to see a decline in inventory caused by production enterprises reducing the operating rate [6].