中辉有色观点-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Stabilize [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate decisions and data suggest no rate cuts this year, but some sentiment has been priced in. Gold and silver may continue to fluctuate, with long - term support logic remaining intact [1][2][3] - Copper has stopped falling and rebounded, but the sharp increase in LME copper inventory restricts its upside. In the medium - to - long - term, copper is still bullish [1][6][7] - Zinc is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, the rebound has limited space, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply increases while demand decreases [1][9][10] - Aluminum prices are under pressure during the transition between peak and off - peak seasons [1][12][13] - Nickel prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and stainless steel is under pressure at a low level [1][16][17] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain in a tight supply - demand situation, with total inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline accelerating [1][20][22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Basic Logic: Most Fed officials support no rate cuts in December. The release of October non - farm payroll data has been postponed, and the market has almost given up on betting on a December rate cut. High - level purchases of gold by central banks in November may drive up gold prices, and in the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4][5] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11500. Hold long - term value - allocation positions and be cautious in the short - term [5] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper has stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 86,000 - yuan mark [7] - Industry Logic: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight. The production of electrolytic copper has declined, and high copper prices have significantly suppressed demand. The global visible copper inventory is at a historically high level, and the LME copper inventory has increased significantly [7] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, copper is oscillating and accumulating momentum. It is recommended to go long with a light position near the 85,000 - yuan mark. In the medium - to - long - term, copper is still optimistic. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [84,500, 87,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper, it is [10,500, 11,000] US dollars/ton [8] Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with narrow - range oscillations [10] - Industry Logic: The supply of zinc concentrates has tightened in the short - term, and domestic smelters may reduce production due to raw material shortages. Consumption has entered the off - season, the export window for domestic zinc ingots has opened, and the risk of soft squeezing has been alleviated [10] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, the rebound of zinc has limited space, waiting for more macro - level guidance. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of selling on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22,200, 22,600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc, it is [2,950, 3,050] US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina is in a weak position at a low level [13] - Industry Logic: The expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have reduced production, and the supply tension has resurfaced. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. The demand shows a structural differentiation. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [14] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, and pay attention to the change direction of the social inventory of aluminum ingots. The main operating range is [21,000 - 21,800] [15] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and stainless steel is under pressure at a low level [17] - Industry Logic: The expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026, and the global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has gradually weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [18] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to gradually take profits on dips for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [115,000 - 117,000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2601 opened high and went high, with a significant increase in positions and a daily increase of over 6% [21] - Industry Logic: The fundamentals remain in a tight supply - demand situation, with total inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline accelerating. Domestic production has reached a new high, but the shortage of raw materials limits the production increase. The terminal market is strong, and the optimistic demand expectation is difficult to falsify [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for opportunities to go long during callbacks or sideways consolidations in the range of [97,000 - 99,800] [23]