焦煤价格短期承压运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Multiple factors drive the coking coal futures price from rising to falling. With current weak demand and continuous supply recovery, the supply - demand pattern has changed. It is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the downstream winter storage and replenishment efforts [6] Summary by Related Content Price Movement - In November, coking coal futures weakened from a strong position. The main contract dropped from a high of 1,318 yuan/ton to around 1,159 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of over 12%, weaker than steel and iron ore. Spot prices also fell, with the self - pick - up price of Meng 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port dropping 6.15% [2] Factors for Price Decline - Supply expectation changed. After the National Development and Reform Commission arranged the energy supply guarantee for the heating season, the expectation of increased coal mine supply strengthened, leading to a significant correction in coking coal futures prices [2] - Demand weakened. Steel price decline worsened steel mill profits, and temporary production restrictions in many places increased maintenance equipment in steel mills, reducing the demand for coking coal [2] - The rising trend of thermal coal prices slowed down. After a rapid increase in October, the price increase of thermal coal slowed down, and some coal mines even lowered prices, pressuring coking coal prices [2] - The arbitrage logic among black - series varieties changed, increasing the willingness of relevant funds to leave the market, leading to a decline in coking coal futures positions and prices [2] Coking Enterprise Situation - Despite the full implementation of the fourth round of coke price increases, coking enterprise profitability did not improve. As of the week of November 13, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan, up 12 yuan month - on - month. Only in Shandong and Hebei were there positive profits [3] - The proportion of profitable coking plants in the sample was 32.19%, down 10 percentage points month - on - month. Most coking enterprises were in a loss state, with low production enthusiasm and a continuous decline in coke production [3] Long - term Demand Outlook - As of the week of November 14, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons month - on - month. The increase was due to the resumption of production after the lifting of production restrictions, but its sustainability is questionable [4] - The proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills was 38.96%, down 29.44 percentage points in 14 consecutive weeks. Steel mills entered a large - scale loss state [4] - The downstream demand in the steel industry is limited. In October, industries such as real estate and manufacturing recovered slowly, and building - material - related industries performed poorly. Steel demand will weaken in the off - season, reducing steel mill production enthusiasm and the expected demand for coking coal [4] Supply Situation - Domestic coal mine production has gradually recovered. As of the week of November 13, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 86.28%, and the daily average raw coal output was 191.95 tons, up 2.52 percentage points and 5.62 tons month - on - month respectively, reaching a new high since October [5] - In the short term, due to factors such as safety inspections and underground working face conditions, the production of some coal mines may decline. Mines that have completed their annual production and sales tasks in December may stop production early, and the increase in coking coal supply is limited [5] Import Situation - Overseas resource imports have recovered. As of October 31, the cumulative import and export freight volume at Ganqimaodu Port was 33.3045 million tons, including 31.4486 million tons of imported coal. 74% of the 2025 cargo volume target has been completed, and subsequent customs clearance vehicle numbers are expected to remain high [6]