高盛：跨交易、大宗商品和股票研究的美国和全球天然气观点

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for European natural gas prices in early 2025, but potential obstacles due to weather and EU storage rule relaxations [5] Core Insights - European natural gas prices are expected to decline to €29 in 2026 and further to €20 in 2027, while U.S. Henry Hub prices are forecasted at $4.60 in 2026 and $3.80 in 2027 [1][2] - The increase in LNG capacity will exceed the Russian gas supply gap, primarily from the U.S. and Qatar, which will help alleviate energy cost pressures in Europe [3] - The global LNG market is anticipated to face oversupply in the coming years, with Henry Hub prices potentially dropping below $2 in 2028 and 2029 [8] - Data centers are projected to significantly increase natural gas demand, with daily requirements potentially reaching 10 bcfa by 2030 [9] Summary by Sections LNG Supply and Demand - The LNG supply wave is expected to dominate the global natural gas market, easing supply-demand balance in Europe and globally [2] - If China increases its natural gas share in power generation and industry by 2% and 3% respectively, it could add approximately 10 billion cubic meters of demand annually [6][7] Market Dynamics - Current market focus includes storage capacity, electricity infrastructure, and supply-demand tightness, with a noted lack of new storage facilities over the past 20 years [4] - The first quarter of 2025 may see a tighter supply-demand balance, but long-term outlook remains bearish [5] Price Forecasts - Long-term price scenarios suggest that European prices could exceed $10 to $15 per million BTU by the mid-2030s due to decarbonization policies [10] - The construction of new storage facilities faces challenges due to high costs, making it difficult to alleviate current market concerns [11][12] Investment Strategies - Midstream companies like Kinder Morgan are viewed favorably due to their ability to benefit from infrastructure demand while being insulated from market volatility [15][18] - Low-cost producers such as EQT are recommended for active buying at around $50 per share, with caution advised near $60 [16][18]