镍与不锈钢日评：考验支撑有效性-20251120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, testing the support around 115,000, due to macro - level suppression, weak fundamentals, inventory pressure, and low valuation [1]. - Stainless steel is expected to show a weak oscillation as the fundamentals are loose and cost support is weak [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - Price and Trading Volume: On November 19, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 82,563 lots (-34,853), and the open interest was 85,012 lots (-14,670). LME nickel rose 0.15%. The spot market trading improved, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - Supply: Nickel ore prices declined. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore at ports decreased, and the import inventory decreased. Nickel iron plants' losses deepened. In November, domestic production decreased, while Indonesian production increased. The inventory of nickel iron slurry increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased, and the loss of electrolytic nickel imports widened [1]. - Demand: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [1]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [1]. Stainless Steel Market - Price and Trading Volume: On November 19, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 88,679 lots (-3,721), and the open interest was 183,832 lots (+6,511). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - Supply: In November, stainless - steel production decreased, and the production of the 300 - series remained basically the same [1]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - Cost: The price of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome declined [1]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 623,200 tons (+17,900) [1]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions. Currently, the price is testing the previous low support. If it cannot break through effectively, stop profit and wait and see [1]. Nickel Ore Benchmark Price - The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in November 2025 was $14,998.67 per thousand tons (dmt), a decrease of about $76.66 compared to the first phase. This price is the main reference for domestic iron ore trading in Indonesia, especially for nickel ores with a moisture content (MC) of 30% - 35%, with the trading term based on FOB. The validity period of this benchmark price covers all transactions in the second half of November [1].