Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The成材is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and its price is likely to continue to decline in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation and pessimistic market sentiment [4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown period from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [3]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, one has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of成材continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the weak supply - demand pattern, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [4]. Aluminum - The alumina market has an oversupply situation, with a slowdown in the decline of spot prices but an unconfirmed bottom. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions have cut production, with a weekly output decrease of 17,000 tons [4]. - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and the total social inventory are high, and continuous inventory accumulation intensifies the supply - demand contradiction [4]. - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM expects the operating rate to show a differentiated trend in the short term [4]. - On November 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from Monday and the same as last Thursday [4]. - There are mixed macro - sentiments. The market still expects a tightening of overseas supply due to potential production cuts in Iceland and Mozambique. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season, the downstream is weak, and the inventory trend is volatile [5].
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251120
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-11-20 03:02