碳酸锂日评：谨防冲高回落-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent. The lithium carbonate production remains at a high level. High prices intensify the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot market trading volume is low. The power demand shows signs of peaking. The multi - empty game intensifies, and the trading channel is crowded. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to guard against a sharp fall after a rise. Production enterprises can conduct selling hedging at high positions [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 99,060 yuan/ton, 99,300 yuan/ton, 99,300 yuan/ton, and 99,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 5,640 yuan/ton, 5,780 yuan/ton, 5,860 yuan/ton, and 5,780 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots (+279,704), and the open interest was 503,132 lots (+18,775). The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 88,900 yuan/ton (+1,500), and the lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial - grade/ domestic) average price was 81,100 yuan/ton (+1,450) [1] 2. Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,086 US dollars/ton (+102), the price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,625 yuan/ton (+50), and the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,575 yuan/ton (+110) [1] 3. Downstream Product Prices - The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was - 50 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 141,150 yuan/ton (+500), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 38,165 yuan/ton (+365) [1] 4. Production and Sales Data in the New Energy Vehicle Market - From November 1 - 16, the new - energy retail penetration rate of the national passenger vehicle market was 62.5%, and the new - energy wholesale penetration rate of national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 60.6%. In the first week of November, the production of pure - fuel light - duty vehicles was 331,000 units, a 3% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period last November and a 59% increase compared with the same period last month. The total production of hybrid and plug - in vehicles was 185,000 units, an 8% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period last November and a 27% increase compared with the same period last month [1] 5. Lithium Carbonate Inventory - The registered inventory was 26,611 tons (+155). The SMM lithium carbonate inventory of smelters, downstream, and others was 32,051 tons, 48,772 tons, and 2,200 tons respectively. The total inventory was 120,472 tons, a decrease compared with the previous period [1]