农产品日报：郑棉期价小幅反弹，糖价走势依旧偏弱-20251120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][6][9] Core Views - Cotton: Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: In the short - term, the decline of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices is limited. In the long - term, raw sugar may remain in a low - level shock, and Zhengzhou sugar may have a pessimistic outlook next year [4][6] - Pulp: The fundamental improvement of pulp is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.67%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,557 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan: As of November 15, 2025/26, the cumulative listing of new - season seed cotton in terms of lint was about 753,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA's November report increased US cotton production, and global cotton supply and demand data were adjusted negatively. The short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestic: After the National Day holiday, the expected decline in new cotton production and the stable increase in seed cotton purchase prices supported the previous rebound. However, new cotton is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak [1] Strategy - Short - term: Cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调. Long - term: Cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,381 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - India: The central government approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season and will consider raising the minimum selling price [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Global sugar production is expected to increase, suppressing the market. In the short - term, the decline space is limited; in the long - term, the rebound is restricted [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: New - season domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but the price is near the cost line, and the decline space is limited [4] Strategy - Short - term: Focus on the support around 5,400 yuan/ton, and treat Zhengzhou sugar with a shock mentality before the Spring Festival. Long - term: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may reach a new low next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,396 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - Market: The import pulp spot market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was limited [7] Market Analysis - Supply: European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained high. Domestic port inventory decline was slower than expected [8] - Demand: Global pulp mill inventory pressure is increasing, and domestic demand is weak, which suppresses pulp prices [8] Strategy - The continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9]