燃料油日报：低硫油市场结构边际改善，但上行驱动仍有限-20251120

Group 1: Investment Ratings - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] Group 2: Core Views - The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, but the upward driving force remains limited [1] - Crude oil prices continue in a weak and volatile state, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - The fundamental situation of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils is converging. The previously strong high-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals have marginally loosened, but there are still supporting factors below [1] - Recently, the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Nigeria and Kuwait has tightened marginally, and the strength of overseas gasoline and diesel has also boosted the valuation of low-sulfur fuel oil. However, in the medium term, it faces the contradiction of being substituted in marine fuel demand and has abundant surplus capacity, so it does not have the conditions to strengthen continuously [1] Group 3: Strategy - For high-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For cross-variety: Positions with long LU-FU spreads can be appropriately taken profit [2] - For cross-period: No strategy provided [2] - For spot-futures: No strategy provided [2] - For options: No strategy provided [2] Group 4: Market Data - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.01% at 2,560 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.21% at 3,266 yuan/ton [1] - Multiple charts show prices, spreads, and trading volume data for Singapore and Chinese fuel oil futures and spot markets [3]