新能源及有色金属日报：市场情绪悲观，镍不锈钢保持弱势震荡-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and an oversupply situation, so nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile range. For stainless steel, due to low demand, high inventories, and a downward - moving cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [1][3][4]. Market Analysis (Nickel) Futures - On November 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 115,300 yuan/ton and closed at 115,650 yuan/ton, a 0.29% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 82,563 (-34,853) lots, and the open interest was 85,012 (6,815) lots. The overall trend showed a slight rebound, mainly a technical pull - back after the previous day's sharp decline. The daily price fluctuation was only 660 yuan/ton, indicating cautious trading and strong wait - and - see sentiment. The end of the US government shutdown may affect the December interest rate cut, and the current probability of a rate cut is less than 50% [1]. Nickel Ore - According to Mysteel, nickel ore tenders have been finalized, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the 1.4% nickel ore tender of Eramen in the north was finalized at $42/wet ton, while the 1.25% nickel ore tender of Benguet has no transaction yet. Downstream nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and iron plants are mostly waiting and trying to lower prices when purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased by $0.12 - $0.2/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 119,500 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands increased slightly, but traders were cautious in taking goods at high premiums. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 4,100 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 35,826 (799) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,846 (-1,986) tons [2]. Strategy (Nickel) - Due to high inventories and a continuous oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile range. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations [3]. Market Analysis (Stainless Steel) Futures - On November 19, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,340 yuan/ton and closed at 12,335 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 88,679 (-3,721) lots, and the open interest was 183,832 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a volatile downward trend, continuing the previous day's decline, with the price center moving down. The daily line closed with a small negative line, and the price continued to run below the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, maintaining a good medium - term downward trend. Affected by weak downstream demand, high inventories, and continuously falling nickel prices, there are still no signs of a stainless - steel price rebound [3]. Spot - At the end of the year, demand is weak, market trading is light, and both costs and prices are on a downward trend, leading to strong wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 385 and 635 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 897.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy (Stainless Steel) - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously downward - moving cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile range. The recommended strategy is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations [4].