原油日报：油价短期受市场情绪主导-20251120

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak; Medium - term: Bearish allocation, short the spread between different contract months [3] 2. Core View - Short - term oil prices are significantly affected by market sentiment. Media reports of a Ukrainian peace plan, an increase in Russian crude oil production, and macro - pessimistic sentiment, especially concerns about the decline of US tech stocks, have all contributed to the market sentiment. The market is also waiting for the impact of the formal implementation of Russian sanctions on November 21 [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Price Movements: On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price dropped $1.30 to $59.44 per barrel, a 2.14% decline; the January - delivery Brent crude oil futures price in London fell $1.38 to $63.51 per barrel, a 2.13% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.60% at 456 yuan per barrel [1] - Russian Oil Situation: Russia's 2025 oil production forecast remains unchanged at 510 million tons. Russia does not plan to actively cut oil production and will adhere to the OPEC+ agreement. Fuel prices have stabilized, and retail fuel prices have started to decline. Sanctions on Russian oil companies have not affected production, and Russia may reach the OPEC+ oil production quota by the end of 2025. Russia has fully compensated for over - production under the OPEC+ agreement [1] - Saudi Oil Data: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September reached a seven - month high of 6.46 million barrels per day, slightly higher than August's 6.407 million barrels per day. Its crude oil production in September hit a two - and - a - half - year peak of 9.966 million barrels per day, the highest since April 2023 [1] - UAE Oil Inventory: As of the week ending November 17, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 20.652 million barrels, a decrease of 1.159 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 562,000 barrels to 7.225 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 176,000 barrels to 3.188 million barrels, and heavy residue fuel oil inventory decreased by 773,000 barrels to 10.239 million barrels [1] - South Sudan Oil: South Sudan's oil transportation has resumed after the interruption caused by the attack on energy facilities in neighboring Sudan. All oil fields in South Sudan have returned to normal export levels, and all crude oil is fully transported to the export terminal at Port Sudan [1] Investment Logic - Market sentiment, including media reports of a Ukrainian peace plan, an increase in Russian crude oil production, and concerns about the decline of US tech stocks, has a large impact on short - term oil prices. The market is also awaiting the impact of the formal implementation of Russian sanctions on November 21 [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak; Medium - term: Bearish allocation, short the spread between different contract months [3]