新能源及有色金属日报：乐观消费预期及情绪仍在，碳酸锂再次增仓上涨-20251120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The lithium carbonate futures market showed an increase in positions and prices, driven by inventory reduction and optimistic consumption expectations. However, with the potential resumption of mining production, attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mining resumes, inventory may shift from reduction to accumulation. Currently, the market is highly volatile, and the downstream's acceptance of spot prices is limited, so the risk of further chasing high prices is relatively large [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 93,800 yuan/ton and closed at 99,300 yuan/ton, with a 4.97% change in the closing price compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots, and the open interest was 503,132 lots, an increase from the previous trading day's 484,357 lots. The current basis was -10,880 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,766 lots, a change of 155 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,400 - 92,400 yuan/ton, a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 84,600 - 88,400 yuan/ton, a change of 1,450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,200 US dollars/ton, a change of 60 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The lithium carbonate futures price reached 100,000 yuan/ton, with positive bullish sentiment on the disk [2]. - On November 19, Liontown held a lithium spodumene concentrate auction. The auction item was 10,000 wet tons of 5.2% lithium spodumene, and the final transaction price was CIF SC6 1,254 US dollars/dry ton, with the goods expected to be shipped in the first half of January 2026 [3]. - As of the end of October 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.645 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.0%. Among them, the number of public charging facilities (guns) was 4.533 million, a year - on - year increase of 39.5%, with a total rated power of 20.3 billion kilowatts and an average power of about 44.69 kilowatts; the number of private charging facilities (guns) was 14.112 million, a year - on - year increase of 59.4%, and the reported power consumption capacity of private charging facilities reached 124 million kVA [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of the lithium spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the same level as in October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [2]. - On the demand side, both the commercial and passenger new energy vehicles in the power market grew rapidly, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight. The production schedules of battery cells and cathode materials continued to improve in November, and it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to show inventory reduction in November [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach, pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of mining production, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4].