新能源及有色金属日报：下游采购对铜价有所支撑-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On Hold [8] - Options: Short Put [8] Core View of the Report Although high copper prices significantly inhibit consumption, due to tight supply at the mine end and better - than - expected performance of new energy sectors like photovoltaics in the second half of the year, copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On November 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 85,530 yuan/ton and closed at 86,080 yuan/ton, a 0.50% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 86,540 yuan/ton and closed at 86,190 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase from the afternoon close [2]. - Spot Situation: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 85,930 - 86,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 85 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, a 15 - yuan increase from the previous day. Low copper prices supported downstream procurement, and the procurement and sales sentiment in Shanghai continued to rise. However, about 40,000 tons of delivery warehouse receipts in Jiangsu may suppress spot premiums [3]. - Important Information Summary: The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed serious differences among policymakers on the interest - rate cut, and almost all agreed to stop the QT. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate the data into the November report, to be released on December 16 [4]. Industry Chain Situation - Mine End: Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in Q2 2026. In 2025 from January to September, the production of major copper enterprises showed differentiation, with some increasing and some decreasing. Codelco lowered its annual production target due to safety incidents [5]. - Smelting and Import: Last week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to weaken. The import window remained closed with a loss of about 850 yuan/ton. The foreign trade market was inactive, but there were two areas of structural activity. The market's focus is shifting to annual long - term contract negotiations [6]. - Consumption: China aims to add 100 GW of new - type energy storage capacity from 2025 - 2027, and the US is expected to add about 19 GW of storage power in 2025. Energy storage expansion will boost metal demand, and the copper demand in China's electric vehicle and energy - transition sectors is expected to increase by 18% to 3 million tons in 2025 [7]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 269,800 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,112 tons to 18,094 tons, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 114,300 tons, a 1,200 - ton increase from the previous week [7]. Strategy - Copper: Buy hedges on dips between 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton, and sell hedges for enterprises with relevant needs can be carried out between 88,500 - 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Arbitrage: Put on hold [8]. - Options: Short put [8]