新能源及有色金属日报：市场成交清淡，铅价延续震荡格局-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddles [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market has light trading volume, and the lead price continues to fluctuate. The lead price is constrained by weak demand and high inventory on the upside and supported by costs on the downside. In the short - term, it should be treated with a fluctuating mindset, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm, with the range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On November 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.21/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,325 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On November 19, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 17,225 lots, a decrease of 8,860 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 17,250 lots, a decrease of 5,231 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,265 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,170 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,300 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Henan lead smelters mainly focused on long - term contract deliveries, with few quotations for spot sales. Traders quoted a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex - factory prices, and some quoted a discount of 120 - 130 yuan/ton. Hunan lead smelters had low inventories, with a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for a small amount of rigid demand transactions. Yunnan holders quoted a discount of 250 - 300 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory prices. Downstream enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, and the premiums of some local holders decreased. The spot market trading was light [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On November 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 19, the LME lead inventory was 264,475 tons, a decrease of 325 tons from the previous trading day [3]