FICC日报：财政隐忧致日债抛售，关注美国9月非农数据-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty in the commodity sector. Consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][3] - The domestic economic foundation needs further consolidation, and the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is controversial. The market is concerned about the US September non - farm payroll data and Japan's fiscal situation [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic situation: On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released, and it is estimated that the average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period may be around 5%. On October 30, China and the US reached a three - aspect outcome consensus, and on November 5, China officially postponed tariffs. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8; China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Investment, consumption, and industrial growth rates also slowed down. The State Council Executive Meeting on November 14 studied the implementation of "two major" construction and promoted consumption policies. On November 18 - 19, China and the Netherlands held consultations on the Nexperia issue, and the Dutch government suspended the administrative order [1] - Fed situation: Many Fed voting members have expressed cautious views on a December interest rate cut, but Fed Governor Waller supports a cut, and Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a slow - paced policy. The US government's shutdown ended on November 12, which is estimated to have reduced the Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points and caused a net loss of about $11 billion. The US October ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, and ADP data showed a weekly average decrease of 2,500 private - sector jobs in the four weeks up to November 1. Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas [1] - International situation: Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached a 17 - year high on November 19 due to expectations of a large - scale supplementary budget. Saudi Crown Prince will invest up to $1 trillion in the US [1] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous and precious metals: The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved and is boosted by global easing expectations. On November 19, the lithium carbonate futures main contract exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton. After the short - term adjustment risk of precious metals is cleared, consider buying on dips. On November 19, spot gold exceeded $4,100, up 0.85% intraday, and spot silver reached $52/ounce, up 2.58% intraday [2] - Black sector: Still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, focus on the "anti - involution" situation [2] - Energy sector: OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels last week [2] - Chemical sector: Pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea, PTA and other varieties [2] - Agricultural products: With the China - US talks concluded, focus on China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [3]