丙烯日报：现货市场回暖，盘面延续偏弱整理-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; demand is picking up but supply pressure still exists, with limited upward driving force, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [2] Core Viewpoints - The spot market for propylene has warmed up, but the futures market has continued to weaken. The basis has strengthened significantly due to the continued decline in coal prices and the expectation of weakening cost support on the futures market, while the expectation of loose supply and demand for propylene remains unchanged [2] - On the supply side, the overall supply pattern of propylene remains loose, and the inventory pressure in factories is still relatively high. On the demand side, the demand support has increased, and the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded slightly. The cost support for propylene is limited [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price, and the Shandong market price [5][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH production capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefins production capacity utilization rate [15][17][18] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It includes the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [27][28][32] 4. Profit and Operating Rate of Propylene Downstream Products - It covers the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [34][35][37] 5. Propylene Inventory - It includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [60][61]