化工日报：EG基差继续走弱，负反馈逐步显现-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross-period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross-variety: None [2] Core View - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3903 yuan/ton (a change of -4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.10%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3925 yuan/ton (a change of -30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.76%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 24 yuan/ton (a decrease of -6 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -59 US dollars/ton (a decrease of -2 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -994 yuan/ton (a decrease of -20 yuan/ton month-on-month). According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons (an increase of 7.1 tons month-on-month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 61.8 tons (an increase of 5.4 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 17 tons, and at the secondary ports were 4.7 tons; this week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 11.1 tons, and at the secondary ports are 2.8 tons, showing a neutral situation overall. On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and the overseas ethylene glycol plant changes are limited. The planned arrivals of ethylene glycol around mid-November are still moderately high, and the port inventory is expected to gradually rise. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3903 yuan/ton (a change of -4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.10%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3925 yuan/ton (a change of -30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.76%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 24 yuan/ton (a decrease of -6 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -59 US dollars/ton (a decrease of -2 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -994 yuan/ton (a decrease of -20 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons (an increase of 7.1 tons month-on-month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 61.8 tons (an increase of 5.4 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 17 tons, and at the secondary ports were 4.7 tons; this week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 11.1 tons, and at the secondary ports are 2.8 tons, showing a neutral situation overall [1]