尿素日报：尿素厂内库存去库-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea prices slightly increased after a slow new - order follow - up last week. Currently, agricultural and compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers are ending, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. Melamine production has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off - season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, factory inventories decreased, and port inventories slightly increased. The high domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. The export quota news improves the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Output - The report shows information on urea weekly output and urea device maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates, and national capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][26][29] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents urea small - particle FOB prices in the Baltic Sea, large - particle CFR prices in Southeast Asia, small - and large - particle FOB and CFR prices in China, price differences, and export and on - disk export profits, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [48][49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides information on upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [52][53][56] Market Analysis - Price and Basis: On November 19, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,663 yuan/ton (+1). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), and in Jiangsu was - 53 yuan/ton (+9). The urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,044 yuan/ton (- 20) [2] - Supply Side: As of November 19, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (- 46,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 82,000 tons (+3,000 tons) [2] - Demand Side: As of November 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32% (- 0.72%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the number of advance order days of urea enterprises was 7.12 days (- 0.59) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4]