甲醇日报：港口回流内地，港口库存高位回落-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port price of methanol continues to decline, and the port inventory has dropped from its high for the first time, with the port methanol flowing back to the inland. The key lies in whether the inland can withstand the impact of the port's backflow. The overseas market maintains a high - operating rate, and the focus is on when the winter maintenance in Iran will be implemented. The auction in the inland has improved, and the inventory of inland factories has slightly decreased. The MTO units of Yangmei are under maintenance, and Luxi MTO maintains a low - load operation. The commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong needs attention. In the traditional downstream, the operating rate of acetic acid continues to decline, formaldehyde operates at a low load in the off - season, and the operating rate of MTBE is acceptable. There are few coal - based maintenance projects in the inland, and the gas - based units in the southwest are waiting for the maintenance from late November to December [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Inland - The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 573 yuan/ton (+10). The price of methanol in Inner Mongolia's northern line is 1978 yuan/ton (+10), with a basis of 565 yuan/ton (+27); in Inner Mongolia's southern line, it is 1920 yuan/ton (unchanged). In Shandong Linyi, it is 2140 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 327 yuan/ton (+17). In Henan, it is 2000 yuan/ton (-15), with a basis of 187 yuan/ton (+2). In Hebei, it is 2075 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 322 yuan/ton (+17). The inventory of inland factories is 358,700 tons (-10,550), and the inventory of northwest factories is 188,500 tons (-17,000). The pending orders of inland factories are 246,320 tons (+920), and those of northwest factories are 125,400 tons (+8,900) [2]. 3.1.2 Port - The price of methanol in Taicang is 1997 yuan/ton (-5), with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton (+12), CFR China is 234 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the import price difference in East China is - 46 yuan/ton (-10). In Changzhou, it is 2235 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it is 1990 yuan/ton (-20), with a basis of - 23 yuan/ton (-3). The total port inventory is 1,479,340 tons (-64,260), the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 819,300 tons (-17,300), in Zhejiang ports is 198,500 tons (-21,300), and in Guangdong ports is 277,000 tons (-13,000). The operating rate of downstream MTO is 89.26% (-0.55%) [3]. 3.1.3 Regional Price Differences - The price differences such as Luobei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc., have different changes, with some decreasing and some increasing [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - The port price continues to decline, and the inventory drops from its high. The key is the winter maintenance in Iran and whether the inland can withstand the back - flow. In the inland, the auction improves, and the factory inventory decreases. In the MTO sector, some units are under maintenance or operating at low loads. The commissioning progress of Lianhong's second - phase MTO needs attention. In the traditional downstream, the operating rates of different products vary [4]. 3.3 Strategy - There are no strategies for unilateral, inter - period, and cross - variety trading [5]. 3.4 Figures in Each Section 3.4.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show the basis between methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia's northern line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][8][24]. 3.4.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference of methanol in Taicang, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [7][29][30]. 3.4.3 Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Figures present the total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol production in China [7][39][41]. 3.4.4 Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Luobei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, etc. [7][43][49]. 3.4.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [7][53][61].